Episode Details

Episode 34 | November 2025

I was in my garage last Tuesday, shooting beef tallow. Yes, beef tallow—jarred cow fat with a marketing department. And while I'm adjusting highlights on solidified animal fat for the fourth time, I'm thinking: I used to shoot for Rolling Stone. What happened?

Then my friend Candice texted. An illustrator in St. Louis. I asked how business was going.

"Everything is a garbage fire out there."

And that's when I realized: we're both drowning. But for completely opposite reasons.

She doesn't have enough work. I have plenty of work—just the wrong work. And neither of us could shake the feeling that something bigger was happening.

So I dug into the data. Economic reports, central bank surveys, and consumer debt studies. And what I found explains why so many freelancers feel like they're either sprinting or sinking right now.

The economy didn't just slow down. It split in half.

What You'll Learn in This Episode:

The Three-Restaurant Economy

• Why Restaurant Two (the middle market) closed and nobody told you
• Where the money actually went (and who's still spending)
• Why some creatives are drowning in commodity work while others have empty calendars

The Economic Data (Made Human)

• The US service sector flatlined in September 2025 (ISM hit 50.0)
• 37% of European businesses postponed investment plans
• 84% of people with credit card debt are cutting non-essentials
• The top 20% now account for two-thirds of all consumption

What to Actually Do Tomorrow

• How to audit your clients into three categories (A, B, C)
• Three questions to ask yourself this week
• The 80/20 split that keeps you sane
• Where to find recession-resistant work (even if it's unglamorous)

Why Craft Still Matters

• What my daughter Lucy's drawings taught me about showing up
• My brother Charlie's legacy (and why it has nothing to do with accolades)
• Why being strategic doesn't mean becoming cynical

Timestamps:

00:00 - Cold Open: Beef Tallow in My Garage
08:45 - The Text Message That Changed Everything
12:30 - The Three-Restaurant Economy (The Metaphor)
18:20 - The Economic Data: What Actually Happened
26:15 - Why We're Both Drowning
31:40 - Where the Money Actually Is (Three Specific Markets)
38:50 - What to Actually Do Tomorrow (Tactical Actions)
48:20 - The Productivity Lie (And the Stoic Response)
53:10 - The Shadow Question (What Are You Actually Ashamed Of?)
58:30 - Why This Still Matters (Lucy, Charlie, and Showing Up)
01:06:45 - Outro

Key Takeaways:

1. The middle market collapsed. The clients with mid-tier budgets who valued creative work—many of them can't access credit or have cut discretionary spending. That's not a personal failure. That's structural economics.
2. You're either at Restaurant One or Restaurant Three. Commodity work (fast and cheap) or luxury/corporate work (selective and high-end). Restaurant Two is closed.
3. Three sectors are still hiring aggressively: IT (35%), Finance/Real Estate (32%), Healthcare/Life Sciences (28%). Target them.
4. The 80/20 rule saves your sanity: 80% of your energy goes to work that pays bills. 20% goes to work that feeds your soul. Stop trying to make every project be both.
5. Craft matters, even when the client doesn't. Showing up with integrity to unsexy work isn't settling. It's profes