Episode Details

In this episode, we (Howard, Matt & Rodney) sit down with former Canaccord metals & mining analyst turned operator Eric Zaunscherb - now Chair of Critical Elements Lithium and Executive Chair at GR Silver Mining (GRSL) - to assess where we are in the cycle for TSX/TSXV juniors, gold, silver, and lithium, and what that means for retail investors.

What we cover (for investors) 🔍:

Cycle context: Eric’s slide deck tracks seven prior junior-mining recoveries over 43 years. The average up-cycle ran ~38 months with ~+180% magnitude; by his math, today’s move (which started in Q4-2023) still screens mid-cycle on both duration and magnitude.

Gold & silver dynamics: Why precious metals typically lead; how currency debasement and cleared inventories intersect with silver’s dual role (precious + industrial). We discuss silver’s by-product supply, recent volatility, and why it tends to outperform late in the move - and underperform on reversals.

Valuations you rarely see: EV per P&P reserves, M&I, and global resources across silver developers vs. gold peers - why silver reserves aren’t getting a premium yet (capital scarcity for build-outs), while gold developers have started to be rewarded.

Lithium reality check: Identified resources have doubled since 2022 (mostly DLE/clays), but commercial output remains anchored in hard-rock and salar brine. Developer multiples haven’t re-rated alongside gold/silver - creating scarcity value for conventional, financeable assets.

Quebec focus: Critical Elements’ Rose project optionality, the Nisk/Lion area (optioned to Power Metallic), and why Quebec’s clean grid + jurisdiction matter to Japan/Korea offtakers.

Energy storage (BESS) is the swing factor: Matt explains why most forecasts underestimate solar + storage, how grid constraints and fast-build lead times pull storage demand forward, and what that implies for lithium incentive pricing.

Policy & capital flows: AUS-US cooperation, potential shared infrastructure, and growing private/DFI capital for critical minerals.

Mini-segment: Alicia Mil(lne) - Q2 Metals update (Korea/Japan roadshow, assays pending incl. Hole 44: 457 m pegmatite intercept). Guidance: Q1 inferred resource, PEA work to follow; four rigs currently turning.

Why this matters (our take) 🤝:

- Know where we are in the cycle to size risk across producers vs. developers.
- See how capital availability is shaping valuation spreads (especially silver).
- Distinguish conventional, buildable lithium from higher-tech-risk stories.
- Treat BESS as a second demand engine (alongside EVs) with policy and grid tailwinds.

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Sponsors

- Lithium Royalty Corp (TSX: LIRC) - diversified lithium royalty portfolio.
(Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/ | X: https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty)

- USCF Investments - commodity-focused ETFs (e.g., CPER copper, ZSB battery metals, USG gold, SDCI diversified commodities).
(Website: https://www.uscfinvestments.com/ | X: https://x.com/USCFInvestments)

Chapters 

(00:00) Intro
(04:25) About Guest
(05:34) TSXV Recovery Cycles
(07:57) Cycle Drivers
(09:30) Silver's Dual Role
(11:05) Inventories & Volatility
(13:10) Silver Supply Constraints
(15:07) Silver's Bigger Swings
(15:46) Valuing Silver Developers
(18:36) Gold vs. Silver Valuations
(19:33) Gold Macro Setup
(22:45) Lithium Valuation Reset
(24:55) Resources vs. Supply
(26:52) Quebec Lithium Snapshot
(30:56) Strategics: Korea & Japan