Episode Details

In this episode, Malcolm and Simone Collins dive deep into the latest data on fertility rates in the United States, with a special focus on the dramatic decline in black fertility rates. Using CDC statistics and projections, they explore how black fertility has not only dropped below white fertility for the first time in recent history, but is also being outpaced by other demographic groups. The discussion covers a range of factors influencing these trends, including socioeconomic status, cultural shifts, marriage rates, and the impact of organizations like Planned Parenthood. The hosts also examine the role of progressive narratives, immigration, and changing attitudes within black communities, offering a thought-provoking analysis of what these changes mean for the future. Whether you’re interested in demographics, social policy, or cultural commentary, this episode provides a data-driven, candid look at a topic that’s often overlooked in mainstream conversations.

Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] Hello, Simone. Today we are gonna be going over some shocking numbers that I ran into when I was working on another post, and I just sort of started looking at the ethnic fertility breakdown in the United States by year.

And I will put that on screen here.

So here we have from 2000 to 2023 the CDC D’S ethnic breakdown. Now you will note that the last firm numbers we have from the CDC are in 2023, right? So what happens if we project these numbers and the trends that we have within New Chestnut Group? Because one thing you’ll notice very quickly is that numbers are following way faster in the black group than they are in the other groups.

It’s wild. Specifically, blacks went from a fertility rate of 2.26 down to this was in 2000 to 20 23, 1 0.58, whereas in the same period whites went from 1.88. Two, 1.53 a much [00:01:00] less decline. And actually if you look at the numbers overall, I thought Asian fertility rates might be stabilizing uhhuh and they, they might, but they have actually declined the most, statistically speaking.

Oh my goodness. So, so they went from 2.07 to 1.31 is what they’re at now. It’s a very bad but what I would note is agent fertility rates have been stable for about three years. Okay. Most of that fall happened a while ago. So, you know, I get these numbers and I’m like, okay buddy, let’s do the math.

Like at what year have you, if you going forwards, uhhuh to black fertility rates in the United States, fall below white fertility rates

Speaker 2: Oh s**t, here we go. It’s on. Race, war. Race, war, race, war, race war’s on everybody.

It’s going down. It’s going down.

Malcolm Collins: because the, the official confirmed data we have ends in 2023. So what year is that?

Simone Collins: I’m gonna guess 20 28,

Malcolm Collins: 20 25.

Simone Collins: Oh wait, that’s this

Malcolm Collins: year.

Speaker 2: Token Forfeit. [00:02:00] Whites win. Whites win. Race, war, everybody whites.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. So then I decided to go and I was like, well, if it happened this year, there must be somebody who’s working with preliminary data that can, that can confirm this, right. Like Yeah. From the CDC. And so we actually have it confirmed from two sources where they were looking over the preliminary data.

First gauge on X you know, a pretty standard population tracking account in like the prenatals community. Yeah. They said with the new population estimates by age for us, we can finally revise the TFR for 2024. So this is last year. Okay, by the way. Okay. And so, this took the white fertility rate from 1.54 to 1.52.

So white fertility rate was less than we thought, right. The black fertility rate from 1.52 to 1.490. Oh my gosh. So last year we had numbers showing b