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Excess Returns Pod: Robert Hagstrom & Chris Mayer -- With the Concentrated Momentum Driven Almost Unbeatable Major Indices, What Does It Really Take These Days to Outperform the Market
Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom (The Warren Buffett Way) and Chris Mayer (100 Baggers) for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.
Two legendary investors and authors. One hour packed with timeless wisdom on long-term thinking and wealth creation. This is the conversation we’ve been wanting to have—and we think you’ll find it as valuable as we did.
I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.
https://cultishcreative.com/ — everyting Matt Zeigler.
In a world that moves tick by tick and quarter by quarter, The 100-Year Thinkers zooms out to explore what it really means to invest with patience, discipline, and perspective. In this premiere episode, join Matt Zeigler, Bogumil Baranowski, Chris Mayer, and Robert Hagstrom as they discuss market concentration, the dominance of mega-cap stocks, and how investors can think in decades—not days.
Together, they explore the evolution of active management, the role of the S&P 500, the challenge of private equity, and how to build portfolios that last.
Topics covered
Concentration and the rise of mega-cap dominance
Equal-weight vs. market-cap-weighted indexes
The role of the S&P 500 and how it shapes investor behavior
Why the Magnificent Seven may not repeat past winners’ mistakes
The differences between today’s tech leaders and the 1999 bubble
The changing nature of private equity and illiquidity premiums
How to define success as an investor beyond beating the index
The importance of focusing on business economics over stock prices
Lessons from Buffett, Bill Miller, and other long-term thinkers
Timestamps
00:00 Concentration and portfolio construction
04:00 Market-cap dominance and equal vs. cap weighting
10:30 Active management, benchmarks, and the S&P 500
17:00 Economic realities of the top 10 stocks
23:00 Government policy and market intervention
26:00 Comparing 2024 to 1999 and lessons from past cycles
32:00 Innovation, Russell 2000, and private company growth
40:00 Active management and how the S&P wins
41:45 The private equity boom and its challenges
49:00 Redefining performance and investor goals
55:00 The importance of focusing on business economics