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The Fourth Turning Review — What They Got Right (and Wrong) | Episode 520
Episode 520
The Fourth Turning Review — What They Got Right (and Wrong) | Episode 520
History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Rhymes
Hey, it’s James from SurvivalPunk.com. Today we’re diving into The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe — a book that’s been floating around prepper circles for decades. Written in the late ’90s, it predicted that by the mid-2020s America would face a massive, generation-defining crisis — something on par with the Great Depression or World War II.
Spoiler: we’re here, and it hasn’t quite played out that way.
The Big Idea: Four Cycles of History
Strauss and Howe proposed that history runs in 80- to 100-year cycles, divided into four “turnings”:
- High — A strong, unified society after a crisis (think 1950s America).
- Awakening — Rebellion and spiritual renewal (the 1960s counterculture).
- Unraveling — Institutions weaken and individualism rises (the ’80s-’90s).
- Crisis — The system collapses and is reborn (predicted for 2005–2025).
Each turning shapes generations — prophets, nomads, heroes, and artists — that repeat like clockwork, passing the same archetypes down the line.
Where They Went Wrong
We’ve had crises — 9/11, the 2008 financial crash, COVID, endless wars — but none reshaped the nation. Each one looked like the big one, but fizzled out.
Our “crisis” years came in bursts, venting pressure without forcing a true reset. Instead of a unifying cataclysm, we got constant low-grade chaos.
Maybe the authors weren’t wrong — maybe the timeline just stretched. The more we delay a real collapse, the worse it’s likely to be when it finally hits.
Why Millennials Never Became the Hero Generation
According to the book, Millennials were supposed to be the next “hero archetype” — rebuilding after collapse like the WWII generation did. But without a real crisis, we became a generation adrift.
We got debt, disillusionment, and memes instead of purpose. Gen X never stepped up as the generals, and Gen Z seems more doom-scrolling than doing.
If a true Fourth Turning is still ahead, Gen Alpha might be the ones who rise to the occasion — the feral little kids who’ll inherit this mess.
Are We in a Fifth Turning?
Here’s a wild theory: maybe we broke the cycle.
With technology, disinformation, and global interconnection, the old rhythm of 80-year patterns doesn’t hold up. Maybe we’re in something new — a fifth turning — where chaos is permanent and the reset never comes.
Or maybe the storm just hasn’t hit yet, and this calm is the eye before it.
Final Thoughts
The book is worth reading, but its predictions about the future haven’t aged well. His
Published on 1 week, 4 days ago