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James Davolos (Horizon Kinetics) on Betting on Inflation

Episode 199 Published 4 years, 9 months ago
Description

James Davolos, VP and portfolio manager at Horizon Kinetics, joins the show to make the case for inflation and to explain their Inflation Beneficiaries ETF, ticker $INFL. In this episode: 

  • How Horizon and Murray Stahl were one of the earliest asset managers to put client assets in GBTC
  • How Horizon's value approach landed them at a Bitcoin allocation
    James' reaction when Horizon first made the Bitcoin allocation
  • Whether Bitcoin is a growth or a value asset, and how to reason about it from either perspective
  • James' reaction to Jerome Powell's announcement on rates
  • The genesis of the idea to create an inflation beneficiaries ETF
  • James' case for inflation
  • Should the disinflationists be taking victory laps?
  • Why the Fed is calling inflation 'transitory'
  • Why we didn't get inflation from 2010-20
  • What crystallized the case for inflation for Horizon Kinetics?
  • The importance of the 'taper tantrum'
  • Why historical parallels are so hard to find – and why we have no historical precedent for our current moment
  • How the dollar is the 'least rotten apple'
  • The prospects for a non-dollar monetary system
  • The effect of ESG on commodity cycles
  • How fiscal spending and the political anti-capital movement represents a structural shift
  • The constant battle between capital and labor
  • Why equities may suffer from higher labor costs
  • Why Horizon focuses on asset light companies
  • James' answer to the equity-inflation return puzzle
  • Horizon's specific allocations to benefit from inflation
  • The early success of the Inflation Beneficiaries ETF
  • Why the inflation beneficiaries ETF does not contain Bitcoin
  • How this ETF sets itself apart from other ways to play inflation – and why TIPS aren't the best bet
  • Is the thesis playing out so far?
  • Why the Fed has to remain subtle with their debasement
  • James' pitch to Bitcoiners 
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