Podcast Episode Details
Back to Podcast Episodes
AI : is winter coming ? or more like an autumn!
check out the deep research paper at. https://g.co/gemini/share/12fff153bba5
Paper leads to three plausible future scenarios, with varying probabilities.
Disclaimer : Not a financial advice
Scenario 1: Full Winter (Low Probability):
This scenario would involve a multi-year freeze in funding and a collapse of major AI companies. It would likely be triggered by a "black swan" event—most plausibly, a catastrophic and broadly applied legal ruling in the copyright cases that mandates the destruction of existing models and imposes crippling financial liabilities. This would create a legal and economic toxicity around the current paradigm, forcing a fundamental and painful reset of the entire field.
Scenario 2: AI Autumn (High Probability):
This is the most likely scenario. It involves a significant market correction, a sharp contraction in valuations, and a period of industry consolidation and recalibration. It would not be a single event but a confluence of the pressures analyzed: a major pure-play AI company fails due to unsustainable cash burn; enterprise customers report widespread disappointment with ROI, leading to budget cuts; and a series of costly legal settlements establish a new, more expensive licensing regime for data. In this scenario, funding would tighten dramatically, and the industry's focus would shift away from speculative, frontier model research and toward a relentless focus on practical, profitable, and defensible applications. This would be a painful but ultimately healthy maturation of the market.
Scenario 3: Sustained Growth (Medium Probability):
In this more optimistic scenario, the deflationary forces of technological innovation win their race against the inflationary costs of scaling. Breakthroughs in hardware and algorithmic efficiency rapidly improve the economic viability of AI, allowing enterprise ROI to materialize at scale. A workable legal framework for content licensing is established through settlements and legislation, providing the industry with certainty. Growth would continue, though it would likely be more volatile and punctuated by periodic corrections as the hype cycle continues to ebb and flow.
Published on 3 months ago