Episode Details

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com

Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-

Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Leaked Texts, Argy, Soybeans
4:02 Grain Stocks
9:12 Govt Shutdown and Markets
10:39 River Levels

🇦🇷 Trump & Milei Meeting
President Trump will meet Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14. Milei is seeking a $20B US credit swap to shore up Argentina’s dollar reserves. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed negotiations are underway, but leaked texts suggest frustration — Argentina suspended grain export taxes, sold soybeans to China, and critics say US farmers are footing the bill. 📉

🌽 Corn Stocks Report
USDA pegged Sept 1 corn stocks at 1.53B bu — down 13% YoY, but 15% above trade expectations. Dec25 corn fell 6¢ to $4.16, its lowest in a month. USDA also revised the 2024 corn crop +25M bu on higher harvested acres.

🌱 Soybeans & Wheat
Soy stocks came in a bit light, yet Nov25 beans still dropped 9¢ to $10.02 on weak export demand. Wheat futures fell as stocks topped both last year and expectations. USDA projects total wheat output at 1.98B bu, with winter wheat up 3% and spring wheat down 9%. 🌾

🏛️ Partial USDA Shutdown
A government shutdown is underway — essential functions continue but most reporting halts. It’s unclear if today’s EIA report, tomorrow’s export sales, or Friday’s CFTC data will be delayed. Roughly 41% of USDA staff remain on duty.

🚢 Mississippi River Issues
Historic low water levels — for the 4th year in a row — are disrupting grain shipments. Southbound flows are down 79% in a month. Draft restrictions and tow limits cut capacity, barge freight rates are climbing, and basis levels are under pressure.