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Israel Today: Ongoing War Report - Update from 2025-09-30 at 14:07
HEADLINES
Gaza framework links disarmament to hostage release
Hamas studies plan as Israeli coalition balks
Arab states back endgame as Iran resists
The time is now 10:00 AM in New York, I'm Noa Levi and this is the latest Israel Today: Ongoing War Report.
Good morning. At this hour, the region remains tense as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran’s orbit of influence hangs in the balance, and as Washington’s newly laid framework for Gaza draws mixed reactions across the Israeli political spectrum and among regional partners. The central question before observers is whether Hamas will accept the plan unveiled this week and, if not, what follows for the war in Gaza and for the broader security architecture of the Middle East.
The plan presented by President Trump and endorsed by Prime Minister Netanyahu stacks a set of conditions Hamas has not previously embraced. It calls for Hamas to disarm and to release all Israeli hostages or their remains within a compressed time frame, and it envisions an Arab-led security structure to govern Gaza while Israel shifts toward a withdrawal or redeployments under international oversight. It also foresees a sequence of hostage releases tied to progress on de-radicalization and the dismantling of Hamas’s governing role in Gaza. In short, it ties any end to the war to a hard transformation of Hamas’s leadership and capabilities on the ground.
Hamas has indicated it will study the proposals and is expected to respond within days, after consultations with allies in Qatar and Turkey and discussions with other intermediaries. US and Israeli officials have framed the plan as the credible path to a durable halt to the fighting, but right-wing critics in Israel have voiced concerns that the framework concedes too much ground or frames a future in which Hamas can resume influence in Gaza under new guardianship. The plan’s success or failure will hinge on Hamas’s willingness to surrender weapons, the pace and scope of any Israeli withdrawal, and the guarantees sought by Hamas for the safety of its senior cadres.
Among Israelis, Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly supported the plan as a path to ending the war, while several senior partners in his coalition have voiced reservations. Bezalel Smotrich, the finance minister and head of a hardline party, described the framework as a missed opportunity and warned that it could unduly reward Hamas. He has kept open the possibility of internal coalition friction, including the risk of pushing the government to rethink its support if concessions appear excessive. Other senior ministers have noted that while the plan offers important hostage-recovery prospects and a roadmap to degrade Hamas’s military capacity, every element must be executed with clear, binding commitments and verifiable guarantees.
On the regional front, Israel’s interlocutors point to broad Arab backing for the plan, with many Arab and Muslim states signaling openness to a negotiated end to the war and a political settlement that preserves Israel’s security posture. Qatar, and to a lesser extent Turkey, have been active in mediating the discussions, while Egypt remains deeply involved in shaping the security and humanitarian contours of any ceasefire and postwar governance. Iran, by contrast, has publicly opposed and worked to cushion Hamas’s posture, aiming to preserve influence even as its proxies face intensified pressure from Israeli and allied operations.
In the broader regional balance, the war’s multiple fronts persist. In Lebanon, Hezbollah remains a factor in the security equation, even as there is increasing emphasis in Beirut and among Lebanese factions on disarming or at least constraining Hezbollah’s armed capacity. Analysts warn that any escalation or perceived gains by militant groups could undermine fragile political arrangements and complicate the path to a stable ceasefire. In Syria,
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