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Rising Unemployment Could Spill Into Real Estate (But By How Much?)
Episode 357
Is the labor market finally cracking, and what does that mean for the housing market? Dave Meyer distills the latest BLS and ADP payrolls, JOLTS, and unemployment data, from August’s 22,000 nonfarm payroll gain and a 4.3% jobless rate to a 900,000 downward revision and a spike in initial claims, to show a clear cooling trend. He explains why a softer labor market raises the odds of Fed cuts yet inflation keeps pressure on interest rates, so mortgage rates may ease only modestly, boosting transaction volume more than home prices or housing prices. You will hear practical plays for real estate investors, including watching local job numbers, prioritizing tenant retention and collections, and considering refinances if you hold 7 to 8 percent loans, plus how markets like Las Vegas and San Francisco may diverge. Dave’s housing market prediction and forecast: a soft but functioning market with cautious upside, where housing prices stabilize and conservative underwriting wins until clearer trends emerge.
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Published on 5 days, 12 hours ago