Episode Details

In this episode, we broadcast from Rockefeller Center and dig into three areas retail investors are asking about: rare earths valuation, titanium & advanced manufacturing (IperionX: IPX), and lithium market volatility—with updates from The Metals Company (TMC) and Lithium Royalty Corp (LIRC).

🔍 What we cover:

- Rare earths—how to value early-stage names: Matt explains why NdPr-equivalent (neodymium–praseodymium) is a better lens than Total REO, and how we compare companies using market cap per contained NdPr-equivalent rather than headline grades alone.

- IperionX site visit takeaways: Scrap-to-titanium, additive manufacturing and fasteners opportunity; why execution risk is falling; and how a “Bessemer moment” for titanium could reset costs versus aluminum/stainless.

- TMC regulatory progress: NOAA confirms application compliance and priority rights; we discuss timelines, executive-order context, and what “big needle-mover” funding could look like in the U.S. framework.

- Battery chemistry mix: Where nickel chemistries sit versus LFP as autonomy and energy density needs rise; manganese’s role (LMR) and the potential to produce manganese sulfate from nodules.

- Lithium market now: CATL lepidolite restart chatter, demand growth still tracking ~high-20s % y/y, Chinese capex decelerating, and why restarts and cost curves matter for price formation through 2026–27.

- Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE): Asset-by-asset reality check—costs and capex can be higher than conventional routes; not automatically first-quartile on the cost curve.

- Royalty model for retail investors: LIRC’s portfolio (e.g., Sigma Lithium) and why royalties can provide exposure to Argentine brines and production growth while reducing operating cost risk.

Learn more about IperionX (IPX):
- Website: https://iperionx.com/
- X (Twitter): https://x.com/iperionx

Learn more about The Metals Company (TMC):
- Website: https://metals.co/
- X (Twitter): https://x.com/themetalsco

Learn more about Lithium Royalty Corp (LIRC):
- Website: https://www.lithiumroyaltycorp.com/
- X (Twitter): https://x.com/Lithium_Royalty

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📖 Chapters
(00:00) Introduction
(03:15) Rare Earths: NdPr Valuation
(08:20) IperionX: Scrap-to-Titanium
(18:03) Heavy Rare Earth by-products
(23:41) TMC: NOAA Compliance & Timeline
(26:19) TMC: Priority Rights & Scale
(27:47) Manganese & LMR Batteries
(30:42) Industry Signals: Lockheed & Partners
(33:01) Nickel vs LFP; Autonomy
(35:55) U.S. Funding Paths & Structure
(43:05) Lithium Royalty Corp Overview
(45:09) Exposure to Argentine Brines
(46:53) Volatility: CATL, Demand, China CapEx
(50:56) DLE: Costs, CapEx, Fit
(56:18) Restarts & Cost Curve
(58:56) Price Recovery Outlook

🌍 Links

- Read Matt’s research blog: https://blog.rkequity.com/
- Sign up for the Lithium Ion Bull newsletter: https://rkequity.com/

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/rockstockchannel
Podcast:
  Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lithium-ion-rocks/id1457969172
  Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/0KiMIZOPaDg8ENfPJMSINq
X (Twitter):
  Howard: https://x.com/LithiumIonBull
  Rodney: