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80 Years Without World War: How Has Peace Lasted?
For nearly 80 years, the world’s leading powers have avoided direct war — a stretch historians call the “Long Peace.” This video explores why peace has lasted so long, what forces have kept it in place, and how fragile it may be in the years ahead.
Drawing on my essays from my research, (https://robertdewey3.substack.com/p/g...) we look first at the historical rarity of 80 years without great power conflict. Then we examine the global forces that shaped this era: U.S. hegemony after World War II, nuclear deterrence and the Cuban Missile Crisis, economic interdependence between rivals like the U.S. and China, and international institutions such as the UN, WTO, and EU.
While these systems have enabled extraordinary global prosperity, each contains weaknesses — and history shows that peace is never guaranteed. Cycles described by Ray Dalio in Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order and Strauss & Howe in The Fourth Turning suggest new challenges may be approaching.
The Long Peace has been a foundation for growth and progress. But can it endure — and what happens if it doesn’t? These are questions that matter for the prospects of the next generation.
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Timeline:
0:00 — Overview of The Great Peace.
0:26 — Modern Flashpoints: 2025, two flashpoints, Israel airstrike, Russian drones, historical precedent.
1:05 — Theories and Historical Context: Extraordinary events, global powers, extended peace, historical cycles.
3:33 — Hegemonic Stability & Nuclear Deterrence: US dominance, nuclear weapons, deterrence, global order.
6:11 — Systemic Forces & Fragility: International institutions, recent escalations, fragility of peace, looking ahead.
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Published on 3 days, 15 hours ago