Episode Details

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why the macro backdrop could be changing in favor of agency mortgages after the Fed’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole.

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Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. 

James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. 

Jay Bacow: Today we're here to talk about why mortgages offer value after Jackson Hole. 

It's Tuesday, September 2nd at 2pm in New York. 

James Egan: So, Jay, let's start with the big picture after Jackson Hole, the Fed seems like it's leaning towards cutting rates in a steady, almost programmatic fashion. And in prior episodes of Thoughts on the Market, you've heard different strategists at Morgan Stanley talk about the potential implications there.

But for mortgages, what does this mean? 

Jay Bacow: Well, it takes a lot of the uncertainty out of the market, and that's a big deal. One of the worst-case scenario[s] for agency mortgages – that the investors are buying not mortgages that homeowners have – would've been the Fed staying on hold for much longer than expected. With that risk receding, the backdrop for investors owning agency mortgages feels a lot more supportive. And when we look at high quality assets, we think mortgages look like the cheapest option. 

Jim, you mentioned some of the previous strategists that come on Thoughts on the Market. Our Global Head of Corporate Credit Strategy, Andrew Sheets had highlighted recently how credit spreads are trading at basically the tights of the past 20 years. Mortgages are basically at the average level of the past 20 years. It seems attractive to us. 

James Egan: And that relative value really does matter. Investors are looking for places to earn yield without taking on too much credit risk. Mortgages, particularly agency mortgages with government guarantee there, they offer that balance. 

Jay Bacow: Right. And it's not just that balance, but when we think about what goes into the asset pricing, the supply and demand picture makes a big difference. And that we think is changing. One of the reasons that mortgages have underperformed corporate credit is that when you look at the composition of the buyers, the two largest holders of mortgages are the Fed and domestic banks. 

The Fed's obviously going to continue to run their portfolio down, but domestic banks have also been on the sidelines. And that's meant that money managers, and to a lesser extent overseas, have had to be the largest buyers. But we think that could change. 

James Egan: Right, with more clarity on Fed policy, banks in particular may get more comfortable adding mortgages to their balance sheets, though the exact timing depends on regulatory developments. REITs might also find this more compelling? 

Jay Bacow: Right. If the Fed's cutting rates, the front end is going to be lower, and that's going to mean that the incentive to move out of cash should be higher, and that's going to help both banks and likely REITs. But then there's also the supply side.

Net issuance of conventional mortgage has been negative this year. That's obviously good. And some of the other technicals are improving as well. Vols are trading better, and all of this just contributes to a healthier landscape. 

James Egan: Right. And another thing that we've talked about when discussing mortgage valuations is the importance of volatility. If you're bu