The Independent Advisors Podcast Episode 316: Seasonality in Vogue

#316 topics:

September Historically Weak

Current market positioning: No significant pullback since April lows, creating potential opportunity for buyers during September weakness.
Contrarian perspective: Excessive focus on September weakness in media might indicate potential for better-than-expected performance.

Currency and International Markets

Dollar weakness driving international outperformance
Concerns about international markets' ability to maintain outperformance due to shorter work weeks and slower growth rates compared to US.

Housing Market Dynamics

Supply-demand imbalance: Redfin data shows 508,000 more home sellers than buyers in June 2024.
Despite higher mortgage rates, household debt service remains below historical norms.
Oversupply of sellers versus buyers suggests potential downward pressure on home prices.

Federal Reserve Policy Shift

Fed adopted new approach removing 2% average inflation target reference and focusing on employment shortfalls.

AI Job Displacement Concerns

Historical analysis shows technological advances have created 6 billion jobs despite continuous industry disruption.

Show Notes:

Post on X by Ryan Detrick at Carson Investment Research on 8.29 - https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1961495356287463555

blog post from Jeff Hirsch on 8.27 - https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/793063284503953408/bears-have-been-running-wild-in-september-since

Blog post from Taylor Schulte on 8.28 titled “6 Favorite Investing Charts - https://taylor-schulte.kit.com/posts/the-best-investing-charts-august-2025

Blog Post from Seth Klarman on 8.25. titled “Job Churn” - https://seths.blog/2025/08/job-churn/

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Published on 2 weeks ago

Podcast Episode Details

The Independent Advisors Podcast Episode 316: Seasonality in Vogue