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Tech CTO Has 99.999% P(Doom) — “This is my bugout house” — Louis Berman, AI X-Risk Activist
Louis Berman is a polymath who brings unique credibility to AI doom discussions. He's been coding AI for 25 years, served as CTO of major tech companies, recorded the first visual sighting of what became the dwarf planet Eris, and has now pivoted to full-time AI risk activism. He's lobbied over 60 politicians across multiple countries for PauseAI and authored two books on existential risk.
Louis and I are both baffled by the calm, measured tone that dominates AI safety discourse. As Louis puts it: "No one is dealing with this with emotions. No one is dealing with this as, oh my God, if they're right. Isn't that the scariest thing you've ever heard about?"
Louis isn't just talking – he's acting on his beliefs. He just bought a "bug out house" in rural Maryland, though he's refreshingly honest that this isn't about long-term survival. He expects AI doom to unfold over months or years rather than Eliezer's instant scenario, and he's trying to buy his family weeks of additional time while avoiding starvation during societal collapse.
He's spent extensive time in congressional offices and has concrete advice about lobbying techniques. His key insight: politicians' staffers consistently claim "if just five people called about AGI, it would move the needle". We need more people like Louis!
Timestamps
* 00:00:00 - Cold Open: The Missing Emotional Response
* 00:00:31 - Introducing Louis Berman: Polymath Background and Donor Disclosure
* 00:03:40 - The Anodyne Reaction: Why No One Seems Scared
* 00:07:37 - P-Doom Calibration: Gary Marcus and the 1% Problem
* 00:11:57 - The Bug Out House: Prepping for Slow Doom
* 00:13:44 - Being Amazed by LLMs While Fearing ASI
* 00:18:41 - What’s Your P(Doom)™
* 00:25:42 - Bayesian Reasoning vs. Heart of Hearts Beliefs
* 00:32:10 - Non-Doom Scenarios and International Coordination
* 00:40:00 - The Missing Mood: Where's the Emotional Response?
* 00:44:17 - Prepping Philosophy: Buying Weeks, Not Years
* 00:52:35 - Doom Scenarios: Slow Takeover vs. Instant Death
* 01:00:43 - Practical Activism: Lobbying Politicians and Concrete Actions
* 01:16:44 - Where to Find Louis's Books and Final Wrap-up
* 01:18:17 - Outro: Super Fans and Mission Partners
Links
Louis’s website — https://xriskbooks.com — Buy his books!
ControlAI’s form to easily contact your representative and make a difference — https://controlai.com/take-action/usa — Highly recommended!
Louis’s interview about activism with John Sherman and Felix De Simone — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Djd2n4cufTM
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares — https://ifanyonebuildsit.com
Become a Mission Partner!
Want to meaningfully help the show’s mission (raise awareness of AI x-risk & raise the level of debate around this crucial subject) become reality? Donate $1,000+ to the show (no upper limit) and I’ll invite you to the private Discord channel. Email me at liron@doomdebates.com if you have questions or want to donate crypto.
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