Episode Details

Former State Department official James Carden delivers a sobering assessment of the Ukraine-Russia peace process in this deep-dive conversation. Moving beyond simplistic narratives, Carden examines why Russia fundamentally rejects the ceasefire approach championed by European leaders, tracing this reluctance to their experience with the Minsk agreements, which Angela Merkel later admitted were designed to give Ukraine time to build military capabilities.

The conversation untangles the complex web of security guarantees at the heart of peace negotiations. Carden explains why "Article 5-style" protections are absolute non-starters for Russia, who view NATO primarily as "an American stalking horse." He suggests more realistic approaches might involve bilateral agreements between Ukraine and its immediate neighbors—though even these relationships are complicated by historical grievances and ethnic tensions.

Perhaps most revealing is Carden's analysis of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's statements regarding territorial aims. When Lavrov references "Novorossiya" and questions the basis of Ukraine's independence, he's articulating historical narratives that, while intellectually interesting, reveal potentially expansive territorial ambitions. This raises troubling questions about the protection of ethnic Russians in post-war Ukraine, with Carden suggesting voluntary population transfers might need consideration.

Despite Donald Trump's expressed desire to broker peace, Carden remains pessimistic about the prospects for a negotiated settlement. "If the Russians want what they say they want, they're going to have to fight it out," he observes. His recommendation? America should withdraw military support and "let the chips fall where they may"—a realist perspective challenging the Washington consensus that continuing to arm Ukraine serves American interests. Listen now for an insider's view on why the most complex international crisis of our time defies simple solutions.