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Is AI Overhyped? Is AI a Bubble? (New Models Don't "Feel" That Much Better, Why?)
In this episode, we delve into the current state of AI and discuss whether it's merely hype or a transformative force in society. The conversation touches on the economic impacts of AI, its advancements in fields like genetics and drug development, and how it's being adopted across various industries. The episode also addresses some criticisms and misconceptions about AI's capabilities and market value. Discussions include insights from industry leaders, practical applications, and the potential for AI to reshape the economy and everyday life.
Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] Hello Simone. I'm excited to be talking to you today. Today we are going to be talking about whether AI is hype, whether AI is plateauing, whether AI is over. And by this what I mean because you know, I, I had a, the head of our development team, Bruno, who comments a lot on the discord and the comments here.
So fans of the show will know him. He sent me an email that we're gonna go over as part of this sort of being like, okay, so here's some evidence that AI doesn't seem to be making the systems level changes in society that you had predicted it would make in the past, and that many other people are predicting it will make.
And when I, and we're seeing other people say this, when I go out and I interact with AI today. I really struggle to see how having this thing I can chat with, is that useful? It may be fun as like a chat bot or something like that. But I don't see its wider utility yet. Now we'll be going into the arguments around this because I think that there are some strong arguments, like the AI industry is making almost no money [00:01:00] right now.
You know, is this industry not, not almost, but almost no win contracted with the investment that's going into it. Right? And, and the amount that we talk about it and other people talk about it is matter mattering. And then you've gotta think about all of this in the context of Yeah, but like 80 thou, well, oh, sorry.
Around 90,000 people just in the US tech sector had their jobs cut due to AI this year. You know, like, yeah. So come on. Do, did not matter to them. Yeah. But, but so what we're going to be seeing here is, I think the way that the people are looking at AI and expecting AI to transform the economy is different from the way it actually is.
They're looking at how AI is useful to them instead of how AI will replace them. I'd also note here I. To the question because Sam Altman, you know, literally like Sam Altman one of the, the guy who runs one of the largest AI companies has said AI is a bubble right now. Right. And so people will come to me and they'll be like, well, you know, even he's saying it's a bubble.
And I'm like, I would say it's a [00:02:00] bubble right now. It is a
Simone Collins: bubble. It's obviously a bubble. He's a bubble right
Malcolm Collins: now. But the fact that a thing is a bubble doesn't mean it's not gonna transform society. Exactly. So like if you go to, the.com boom, right? Like the.com boom was a bubble, right? But the internet still transformed society.
The companies at the beginning of the.com boom, you know, like they were formed in the middle, like Amazon and Google and stuff like that. Like if you made the right bets on those companies, if, if anything, what? Like, if you wanted to make the best bets possible, wait for the AI bust and then invest in whatever survives.
If there is a traditional bust, you know, keep in mind like what, what I mean by a boom now is a lot of people are investing in AI companies without understanding in the same way, like in the early.com boom, what the internet's actually good for and good at.
Simone Collins: Well, what kind of sucks is, is also the AI companies that I think are coming outta this.
They're not gonna be hopefully traded a big shift in ai. Tech booms, as far as [00:
Published on 4 months ago