Episode Details

Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, lays out why a stronger U.S. dollar could trigger a global financial crisis before the end of the year. He explains why the dollar can only fall if the U.S. allows it, how rising rates and geopolitical fragmentation are setting the stage for a major liquidity event, and why most investors are completely unprepared. We also cover: – The coming terrifying drawdown and how to position for it – Why Trump’s America First policies are breaking the rules-based order – How a yen + dollar carry trade unwind could freeze global capital flows – Why swap lines may not be available in the next crisis – The role of gold, Bitcoin, and stablecoins in the evolving system – Why central banks fear a return to a gold standard

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00:00 – Why the Dollar Can’t Fall Unless the U.S. Allows It 03:10 – What Is the Dollar Milkshake Theory? 06:17 – Why Critics Misunderstand the Milkshake Framework 8:45 – Why the 2022 Crisis Didn’t Materialize 14:40 – Trump, Trade Wars & the End of Cooperation 17:05 – Is 2025 Another 2018 or 2008 Setup? 20:15 – Everyone’s Bearish: Dollar Sentiment Breakdown 23:20 – The Dollar Danger Zone & Fed's Dilemma 26:50 – Why the Dollar Falls First in a Crisis 31:00 – Yen Carry Trade Unwind & Global Liquidity Risks 35:00 – Where Does the Crisis Start? 38:00 – Can the U.S. Survive the Drawdown? 40:10 – The Future of Swap Lines Under Trump 42:10 – The Fed–Treasury Merger Scenario 47:00 – Portfolio Strategy: Hedges, Cash & Tail Risk 51:00 – Bitcoin: Asset vs Currency Debate 54:00 – Stablecoins, XRP & Digital Dollar Strategy 58:00 – Gold’s Role: Store of Value or Money? 1:02:00 – Why Non-U.S. Buyers Are Driving Gold Higher 1:04:30 – Is Gold Money Today?