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Bitcoin treasury stocks and mNAV guidance with Adrian Morris
Episode 5
When market sentiment turns sour even as bitcoin trades above $100k, how should investors think about the future of bitcoin treasury companies? In this episode, we sit down with Adrian Morris to unpack the dynamics behind mNAV guidance, ATM usage, and the broader psychology shaping these equities.Timestamps:0:00 - Intro0:50 - Bitcoin hits new all time high, sentiment turns bearish2:23 - Why the market is still strong above $100k3:40 - Bitcoin treasuries as leveraged plays4:21 - Strategy’s mNAV guidance explained6:09 - Did Strategy walk back its guidance?10:27 - Why issuing mNAV guidance was a mistake13:22 - The danger of listening to Twitter noise15:24 - Does this misstep change the long term thesis?18:05 - Strategy as one of the best performing stocks of the decade19:25 - Cooperative dynamics of Bitcoin treasury companies21:21 - Adversarial investors and market psychology23:01 - Bitcoin as signal, treasury companies as amplitude26:25 - How to think about high versus low mNAV multiples29:30 - Is the ATM really driving share price down?33:00 - How management will likely use the ATM going forward35:27 - What could reverse market sentiment38:47 - Why other Bitcoin treasuries may copy preferred equity43:42 - Risks of paying preferred dividends in a bear market47:03 - Strategy’s survival through past bear markets50:23 - Why preferred equity may strengthen resilience51:04 - The key KPI for Bitcoin treasury companies53:51 - Long term outlook for Bitcoin and treasury companies59:19 - Closing thoughts and where to follow Adrian
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