Season 2025 Episode 3712
Watch The X22 Report On Video
Economy
https://twitter.com/onechancefreedm/status/1957517597328712012
commitments.
We’ve seen this before.
In 2006–07, lumber collapsed long before the housing bust became obvious. In 2021–22, lumber’s spike and crash captured the whiplash of pandemic stimulus meeting Fed tightening.
Today’s drop, back under $600, is telling us not just about oversupply but about fading demand in an economy where mortgage costs remain restrictive and liquidity is being drained.
There’s also a market structure angle. Commodities like lumber usually run ahead of official data: the PMI slowdown, weakening credit surveys, and leveraged ETF outflows are all now echoing the same caution.
Lower lumber prices might look like disinflation on paper, but if the driver is demand destruction, that’s recessionary, not bullish
This is the kind of signal markets often ignore until it’s too late: a quiet commodity screaming that growth is slowing, leverage is retreating, and the cushion of speculative appetite is gone. When builders stop buying wood, it’s about the whole cycle losing momentum.
1. Published on 1 week ago
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