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Shiller P/E ‼️: 📉 Crash Predictor or Overhyped? | History, Myths & How to Use It Today
Description
This episode offer a comprehensive overview of the Shiller PE ratio, a key metric for valuing the stock market over the long term. They begin by tracing its intellectual origins from Graham and Dodd's concept of smoothed earnings to Robert Shiller and John Campbell's formal application to the S&P 500, explaining its calculation and primary advantage in reducing earnings volatility for a clearer valuation picture. The text then presents the ratio's historical record of predicting market declines, citing examples from the 1929 crash to more recent downturns, and quantitatively demonstrates its strong correlation with subsequent long-term returns. Finally, the sources critically examine modern critiques of the Shiller PE, addressing how changes in accounting, share buybacks, market composition (rise of technology), and interest rate environments may impact its relevance, before concluding with guidance on its strategic application for investors in the contemporary market.
📚 Value Investing Books Recommendation
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Warren Buffett
The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life
Kindle: https://amzn.to/3FVasqy
Hardcover: https://amzn.to/3HIfeZ2
Paperback: https://amzn.to/4kBjUOZ
Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements (by Marry Buffett)
Kindle: https://amzn.to/43Vr5dD
Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4n6yNus
Paperback: https://amzn.to/45XBBDL
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Charlie Munger
Poor Charlie’s Almanack
Kindle: https://amzn.to/3Zsw9VB
Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4jMExq7
Collector's Edition: https://amzn.to/3SRgsn7
Tao of Charlie Munger
Kindle: https://amzn.to/4nk0akT
Hardcover: https://amzn.to/44eq8OR
Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion
Kindle: https://amzn.to/4619DqL
Hardcover: https://amzn.to/40a8TMi
Paperback: https://amzn.to/40gtwq7
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Howard Marks
The Most Important Thing (Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor)
Kindle: https://amzn.to/3Tqb4Yg
Hardcover: https://amzn.to/3SRyy8A
Paperback: https://amzn.to/