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2025 7-02 Matters of Democracy OBBB, Musk Murkowski,
Description
The Senate recently passed a comprehensive budget bill, described as a "megabill," under intense pressure from the Trump administration, solidifying the perception that "the United States Senate is currently a wholly owned subsidiary of the Trump Organization."
The Senate bill, approximately 1,000 pages long, incorporated elements from the House's version and added/subtracted provisions, making it "a bit longer than the House bill."
Major Provisions Included: Tax cuts for wealthy individuals.
Tougher Medicaid requirements.
Cuts to green energy subsidies and electric vehicle credits.
Reductions in SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) funding.
Changes making it harder to discharge student loans.
A $5 trillion increase in the debt limit.
Tax credits for donations to "school choice" scholarships.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has not yet scored the final version, but "there is little question that the final bill will dramatically increase the deficit."
Major Provisions Excluded: Plans to sell large tracts of public land in the West.
A tax on wind/solar installations using Chinese parts.
A provision preventing states from regulating AI.
Murkowski's Pivotal Vote: Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) became the "decisive vote." Unlike her 2017 vote against repealing Obamacare, where she rejected an Alaska-specific exemption, this time she accepted a deal from Majority Leader John Thune to exempt Alaska from Medicaid and SNAP cuts.
Parliamentarian's Intervention: The Medicaid part of Murkowski's deal was struck down by the Parliamentarian, but was "semi-replaced with $50 billion in new funding for certain types of rural hospitals, the types that just so happen to be common in Alaska."
Elon Musk has publicly expressed anger over the bill, tweeting, "Any 'R' who immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame! And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth." His threats to start a third party are dismissed as mercurial.
Donald Trump is increasingly utilizing the legal system for personal gain and to influence private entities, a strategy described as "mafia-like efforts to shake down both people and organizations." The Next Wave of Sham Lawsuits
While Trump himself is adept at delaying legal consequences, "his underlings' armor is far less impenetrable." Several associates from his first administration are now facing consequences.
The independence of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is perceived as "already dead" under Donald Trump, who views it as another institution to be controlled. Trump's "determination to get his hands on the machinery of interest rates and bond purchases is an admission that his 'big, beautiful bill' is pushing the limits of US debt sustainability."
US Debt Crisis and Economic Concerns A team of Trump loyalists developed a "secretive 10-page report before the election proposing a series of radical steps to break all resistance" at the Fed. Past threats to fire Powell caused "bond vigilantes [to] rebelled," pushing up long-term yields. While yields have since settled, this may be "the calm before the next storm."