Episode Details

"Buffett Indicator (July-2025)," offers a comprehensive analysis of the US equity market's valuation as of late June 2025. It primarily utilizes the Buffett Indicator and Shiller CAPE to suggest extreme over-valuation, historically leading to low long-term real returns. The document further supports this conclusion by examining various other metrics, including Price-to-Sales, Price-to-Book, and a near-zero Equity-Risk Premium, all indicating a stretched market. While some sentiment indicators appear neutral, the inverted yield curve signals potential macro caution, suggesting future normalization through slower growth rather than earnings expansion. Ultimately, the analysis warns investors of lower forward returns and increased risk, advocating for alternative investments like T-bills and quality bonds.

📚 Value Investing Books Recommendation

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Warren Buffett

The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3FVasqy

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/3HIfeZ2

Paperback: https://amzn.to/4kBjUOZ

Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements (by Marry Buffett)

Kindle: https://amzn.to/43Vr5dD

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4n6yNus

Paperback: https://amzn.to/45XBBDL

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Charlie Munger

Poor Charlie’s Almanack

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3Zsw9VB

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/4jMExq7

Collector's Edition: https://amzn.to/3SRgsn7

Tao of Charlie Munger

Kindle: https://amzn.to/4nk0akT

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/44eq8OR

Influence, New and Expanded: The Psychology of Persuasion

Kindle: https://amzn.to/4619DqL

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/40a8TMi

Paperback: https://amzn.to/40gtwq7

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Howard Marks

The Most Important Thing (Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor)

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3Tqb4Yg

Hardcover: https://amzn.to/3SRyy8A

Paperback: https://amzn.to/45ohdM0

Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

Kindle: https://amzn.to/3HXP