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Tough Week: Are We There Yet?

Published 1ย year ago
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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina Rushes Exports Ahead of Tariff Expiry
Crop traders in Argentina are rushing to secure export licenses before tariff relief ends on June 30. President Javier Mileiโ€™s temporary cutsโ€”๐ŸŽฏ soybean meal/oil from 31% to 24.5% and ๐ŸŒฝ corn from 12% to 9.5%โ€”sparked a surge in exports, making June the busiest month since he took office. The move aimed to support farmers and boost foreign reserves ahead of Octoberโ€™s midterms. ๐Ÿšœ๐Ÿ’ฐ Ag groups are urging an extension. ย 

๐ŸŒง๏ธ Rain Brings Drought Relief Across U.S. Corn Belt
Last weekโ€™s rainfall helped ease drought conditions across major growing regions like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. ๐Ÿ™Œ Just 6% of the Corn Belt remains in drought. Nebraska and the High Plains also saw some improvements.ย 

๐Ÿ“Š Drought by Crop:ย 

  • Corn: 16%
  • Soybeans: 12%
  • Winter Wheat: 20%
  • Spring Wheat: 25%
  • Cattle Areas: 18%

๐Ÿ“‰ U.S. Export Sales Dip

  • Corn: 741,200mt (29M bu), โ†“18% from last week; ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia top buyer.ย 
  • Soybeans: 402,900mt (15M bu), โ†“16% weekly but โ†‘83% vs. 4-week avg; ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands top buyer.ย 
  • Wheat: 255,200mt (9M bu), โ†“40% from last week; ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan top buyer.ย 

๐Ÿ“… Key USDA Report Coming Monday
The USDA will release the Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Monday morning. Expectations:

  • Slight increases in ๐ŸŒฝ corn and ๐ŸŒฑ soybean acreage
  • Corn stocks: โ†“7% YoY
  • Soybean stocks: โ†‘1%, 5-year high
  • Wheat stocks: โ†‘20%, 4-year high
    ย ๐Ÿ“‰ Market action suggests traders expect a bearish report.

ย 
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ Russiaโ€™s Banking Sector in Trouble?
Analysts warn of a potential financial crisis by 2026. Rising bad debt, high interest rates, and borrowers falling behind on loans are fueling a credit crunch. ๐Ÿ’ธ
Despite record bank profits in 2024, inflation and war-focused spending are straining the private sector. Trillions of rubles in bad loans may already be in the system.

๐Ÿšข Soybean Flash Sale & Egypt Corn Order

  • USDA reported a 110,000mt corn sale to ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt for 2024/25.
  • Cumulative soybean sales are up 11% YoY for the current marketing year.


โ˜€๏ธ Weekend Weather Outlook: Warm & Wet
Rainfall is expected across the ๐ŸŒฝ Midwest through Sunday, with above-normal temps.
Agronomists are confident: subsoil moisture is strong going into July, a critical month for corn growth. ๐ŸŒพ๐ŸŒฆ๏ธ

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