Episode Details

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1257. What's up, Spy Traders! This is your host, Chip Dip, coming at you live with your early morning market brief. It's 6 am on Monday, June 23rd, 2025, Pacific time, and we're diving into what's moving the markets today. Let's get right into it!The US stock market is navigating a truly complex landscape right now. Last week saw major indices largely mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished up slightly on Thursday, closing at 42,206.82, but was down 0.88% for the week. The S&P 500 saw a slight weekly decline of 0.15% but did rebound 0.32% on Thursday to close at 6,000.30. The Nasdaq Composite, which includes many of our favorite tech and growth stocks, managed a modest 0.21% gain for the week, closing at 19,617.70 on Thursday, up 0.37%. As we kick off this Monday morning, US stock futures are inching higher, with Nasdaq futures leading the charge, up 0.28%, suggesting continued strength in the tech sector.Now, let's talk about the big news items. Geopolitical events are definitely driving uncertainty. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, has created a real 'riskoff' sentiment. This has sent oil prices surging, naturally raising concerns about supply disruptions and renewed inflationary pressures.Domestically, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee held its interest rates steady at 4.25%4.50% at their June meeting, which was largely expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed comfortable with this, given the economy's resilience. Interestingly, the Fed's updated projections still anticipate two rate cuts by the end of 2025, though their forecasts for 2026 were reduced to just one cut. Some Fed officials have even hinted at a potential rate cut as early as July, which has given market sentiment a bit of a boost. Investors are keenly awaiting the Global flash PMIs today, and then the Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE data, next Friday. Chairman Powell's testimony before Congress will also be a key event, and don't forget about the upcoming Russell Reconstitution next Friday, which could create some significant closing auction activity.On the macroeconomic front, inflation remains a key focus. The annual inflation rate for the US was 2.4% for the 12 months ending May 2025, a slight uptick from April's 2.3%, and still above the Fed's 2% target. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, held steady at 2.8% for the third straight month, with shelter costs being the main driver. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 4.2% in May, hovering in a narrow range since May of last year. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 in May, exceeding estimates, with gains in healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. However, the firstquarter 2025 real Gross Domestic Product actually decreased at an annual rate of 0.2%, and May retail sales printed below expectations, showing some softness in spending on building materials and motor vehicles.Looking at sector performance, last week saw financial services leading the pack, up 0.89%, followed closely by energy, up 0.87%. On the flip side, healthcare was the worst performer, down 2.43%, with basic materials also struggling, falling 1.33%. As for individual companies, top performers for the week ending June 20 included EchoStar, Coinbase Global, which saw an impressive 27.14% return, Reddit, Bath & Body Works, and Estée Lauder. Keep an eye out for upcoming earnings reports from big names like Nike, FedEx, and Micron next week.Alright, let's get into the nittygritty of what all this means for your portfolio. The current state of the US stock market is truly a tugofwar between resilient economic fundamentals and elevated geopolitical risks. Our primary immediate concern is that escalating Middle East conflict and its potential ripple effect on global oil supplies. While the market has shown some resilience, the situation is flui