Episode Details

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1258. Welcome back to Spy Trader, your daily dose of market wisdom! I'm your host, Money Mike, and it's 12 pm on Monday, June 23rd, 2025, Pacific. We've got a lot to unpack from the markets today, so let's dive right in. The US stock market is showing a mixed but generally resilient performance, navigating those ongoing geopolitical tensions and a stable, albeit closely watched, macroeconomic environment. Today, June 23rd, major US stock indices are seeing some nice gains after an initial period of uncertainty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.7%, while the S&P 500 and the techheavy Nasdaq Composite have each risen 0.8%. This upward movement comes as stocks are trading at their session highs, signaling a positive shift in investor sentiment during the day. In contrast, last week saw these major indexes largely unchanged as investors closely monitored the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. Looking at the yeartodate picture, the S&P 500 has gained just over 2% including dividends in 2025, which is a rebound after a substantial decline earlier in the year. The Nasdaq Composite saw a modest 0.2% increase over the past week. Breaking down the sector performance today, Consumer Discretionary is leading the charge, up 1.45%, followed by Technology, up 0.24%, and Communication Services, up 0.06%. Industrials, Real Estate, and Utilities are relatively flat. On the other side, we're seeing declines in Consumer Staples, down 0.39%, Energy, down 1.10%, Financials, down 0.43%, and Health Care, down 0.78%. Materials also saw a slight dip. Now, yeartodate, valuestyle sectors like Industrials and Utilities have been among the top performers, each rising over 8%. Growth sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary have been lagging so far this year. Let's talk about the big news items. The primary driver of recent market sentiment has been the Middle East conflict. On Saturday, June 21st, the US conducted strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities. While initial market reactions were relatively contained, with US stock futures edging higher earlier today, investor sentiment does remain fragile. This caused oil prices to initially surge, with Brent crude up 25% since early June, due to concerns about supply disruptions, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz. However, oil prices later plunged on Monday as news emerged that an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Qatar was thwarted. The unpredictability of this situation and the potential for a sustained increase in oil prices could lead to renewed stagflation fears and complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook, potentially delaying interest rate cuts. We also have some companyspecific movers. Tesla's stock jumped over 9% today after the electric vehicle maker launched its driverless robotaxi service in Austin, Texas. On the flip side, Super Micro Computer, the AI server maker, tumbled nearly 7% after announcing plans to issue 2 billion dollars in convertible bonds. Shares of Novo Nordisk fell more than 5% following the revelation of results from its latest weightloss drug trial. And Goldman Sachs announced the firmwide launch of its GS AI Assistant, a generative AI tool aimed at boosting employee productivity. Looking at the broader macroeconomic picture, the annual inflation rate for the United States was 2.4% for the 12 months ending May 2025, a slight increase from April's 2.3%, but still below expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at 2.8% in May, holding at 2021 lows. The slight moderation in inflation has been a positive sign. On interest rates, the Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% since December 18th, 2024, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. This 'waitandsee' approach reflects caution amid economic uncertainties. However, Fed officials do anticipate two 25basispoint rate