Episode Details

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1255. Hey there, Spy Traders! Cashflow Charlie here, and it's 6 am on Saturday, June 21st, 2025, Pacific Time. What a week it's been in the markets, folks! We've navigated everything from geopolitical fireworks to the Federal Reserve's latest pronouncements. So grab your favorite morning beverage, because we're about to break down all the action from the past few days. Let's dive right into the market performance. This past week, ending June 20th, saw a bit of a mixed bag. The Morningstar US Market Index slipped slightly, down 0.07%. The S&P 500, our trusty benchmark, edged down 0.15%, marking its second week of modest losses, closing at 5,967.84 on Wednesday and falling again on Thursday. The Nasdaq Composite, however, managed a small gain of 0.21% for the week, despite a dip on Thursday. And our old friend, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, just barely budged, inching up 0.1% for the week. So, pretty much treading water, wouldn't you say? Now, looking at specific sectors, Financial Services had a great run, up 0.89%, with Energy right behind, gaining 0.87%. On the flip side, Healthcare was the weakest, dropping 2.43%, and Basic Materials also struggled, down 1.33%. Interestingly, largecap stocks saw a small loss, while midcap and smallcap stocks actually gained, and growth stocks performed better than value or blend. On the macroeconomic front, geopolitical tensions, especially the IsraelIran conflict, kept us on our toes. Early in the week, stocks dipped as oil prices surged due to supply concerns, but then bounced back a bit when talks of negotiations emerged. By Thursday, President Trump's comment about a twoweek window for a decision on military involvement helped oil prices retreat. This situation is definitely a big influencer. Then we had the Federal Reserve. Their June 2025 FOMC meeting wrapped up on June 18th, and as widely expected, they kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25% to 4.5% for the fourth meeting in a row. They acknowledged solid economic expansion, a low unemployment rate, and a healthy labor market, but noted that inflation remains 'somewhat elevated'. The Fed actually revised down its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% and bumped up its core inflation forecast to 3.1%. However, the 'dot plot' still pointed to two quarterpoint rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chair Powell highlighted continued growth but also elevated uncertainty. Speaking of data, the May 2025 CPI came in at 2.4% annually, slightly up from April but below forecasts, thanks in part to a 12% yearoveryear drop in gasoline prices. The May jobs report showed 139,000 nonfarm payrolls added, just above expectations, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. But, watch out for those revisions, folks, as March and April job gains were actually reduced by 95,000, hinting at a potential cooldown in the labor market. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% yearoveryear. Other indicators like retail sales, industrial production, and homebuilder confidence all came in weaker than expected on Monday, and the New York Fed Manufacturing Index declined for the fourth month in a row. And let's not forget tariffs. The 2025 tariffs are estimated to raise overall prices by 1.5% in the short run and could cut real GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points this year. They might also increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points and reduce payroll employment by 394,000 by yearend. This is a big deal, especially with May's manufacturing employment showing weakness partly due to these trade tensions. Now for some companyspecific news. Kroger surged almost 10% on Thursday after beating profit estimates and raising its fullyear revenue forecast. CarMax also climbed 6.6% on Thursday, beating profit expectations on higher used auto sales. Advanced Micro Devices, AMD, jumped nearly 9% last Sunday after analyst upgrades. Meta Platforms rose 3% last Sunday on news of paid advertising for WhatsApp. Apple, defying the trend, rose mo