Episode Details

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1252. Welcome to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the choppy waters of the stock market! I'm your host, Bucky Bucks, and it's 6 am on Friday, June 20th, 2025, Pacific time. We've got a lot to unpack this morning, so let's dive right in to get you prepped for the trading day!The US stock market is showing a really mixed bag as of late. Yesterday, June 19th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down a slight 0.10% at 42,171.66. The Nasdaq Composite, however, managed a small gain, up 0.13% to 19,546.27. The S&P 500 saw a marginal decline of 0.03%, closing at 5,980.87. Looking at the broader US500 index this morning, we've seen it rise to between 6020 and 6025 points, gaining about 0.65% to 0.74% from the previous session. Over the last month, this index has climbed a solid 3.00% to 3.09%, and it's up a substantial 10.16% to 10.26% compared to this time last year.Sector performance on June 19th was quite varied. We saw positive moves in Real Estate, up 0.20%; Utilities, up 0.27%; Communication Services, up 0.08%; and Technology, gaining 0.15%. On the flip side, Consumer Staples, Energy, Health Care, Industrials, and Materials all experienced slight declines. Financials and Consumer Discretionary remained effectively flat.Yeartodate, Industrials, Communication Services, and Utilities have been strong performers, while Consumer Discretionary and Health Care have seen some declines.Now, for the big headlines impacting the market. Geopolitical tensions continue to simmer, with the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran creating unease for investors. There are reports that President Trump is considering a potential military strike on Iran, which is certainly adding to the uncertainty. President Trump's new tariffs and trade policies are also a key factor; the Federal Reserve is closely watching how these will impact inflation, with expectations of nearterm price hikes for consumers. This has definitely contributed to market volatility.On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate range at 4.25% to 4.50% at its June 2025 meeting, as widely expected. The FOMC's updated projections still suggest two rate cuts are coming in 2025, but the forecast for 2026 was reduced to just one cut. The Fed is taking a cautious approach, waiting for more data on inflation and the economic impact of those tariffs before making further moves.In company specific news, Marvell Technology, ticker MRVL, saw a jump of over 7% on June 18th, driven by optimism around its AI growth pipeline after an investor event. IBM, ticker IBM, reached an alltime closing high on June 18th, having gained nearly 30% since the start of 2025, fueled by new software launches and advancements in quantum computing. Other notable movers yesterday included Coinbase Global, COIN, up 16.32%; Caesars Entertainment, CZR, up 4.91%; and Enphase Energy, ENPH, up 4.18%. Looking ahead, we've got big earnings reports next week from companies like Nike, Micron, and FedEx, which will give us more insights into retail demand, the trade war's effects, and semiconductor trends.From a macroeconomic perspective, the annual inflation rate for the US was 2.4% for the 12 months ending May 2025, a slight uptick from April's 2.3%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held steady at 2.8% in May. Remember, the Fed's target is 2%. The US unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% in May for the second consecutive month, right where experts expected it. Wage gains are still outpacing inflation at around 3.9%, which is good news for consumers. As for economic growth, the US economy actually contracted by 0.20% in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter, marking the first quarterly GDP contraction in three years. However, the GDPNow model estimates for the second quarter are currently projecting a rebound with 3.4% growth. The Federal Reserve has slightly downgra