Episode Details

Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1246. Welcome back to Spy Trader, your daily dose of market insights from yours truly, Market Maverick Mike! It's 6 am on Wednesday, June 18th, 2025, Pacific time, and we're diving deep into the movements shaping your portfolio. We've got a lot to unpack today as the market navigates some tricky waters. Let's get right into it!The US stock market is currently experiencing a pretty mixed and cautious sentiment. On Tuesday, June 17th, we saw major US indices decline. The S&P 500 Index, or US500, is sitting at 5982 points, after losing 0.01% from the previous session and falling 0.84% on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.7% lower, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.91%. These declines came after a bit of a rebound on Monday and are happening right before the Federal Reserve's big monetary policy decision.Breaking down the sectors, Tuesday was tough with ten out of eleven S&P 500 sectors in the red. Energy was the sole gainer, getting a boost from a spike in oil prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Healthcare lagged, down about 1%, with biopharma specifically hit by news of potential advertising restrictions. Consumer Discretionary was weaker, with Tesla down about 3%, and homebuilders seeing declines after Lennar's results and weaker housing data.But the real headlinegrabber for sector performance was solar stocks. They were absolutely hammered, plummeting after the Senate's budget bill didn't offer much relief from cuts in cleanenergy tax credits. We're talking Enphase Energy down 24%, First Solar dropping 18%, SunRun plunging a whopping 40%, and SolarEdge Technologies sliding 33% on Tuesday. On the brighter side, technology stocks, including big names like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Apple, generally advanced on Monday. Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD, surged nearly 9% after analysts upgraded the stock following their 'Advancing AI' event.Defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman saw declines on Monday, after surging last week due to the IsraelIran conflict.Speaking of that conflict, geopolitical tensions are a major concern. Daily missile exchanges have occurred since Israel's air attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13th. This has created a 'riskoff' sentiment, pushing up oil prices and safehaven assets like the US dollar and gold.President Trump's recent call for Iran's 'unconditional surrender' and a potential strike against Supreme Leader Khamenei have further escalated things. Historically, geopolitical conflicts often have a limited lasting impact on the market, but the immediate reaction can be sharp.Then there's the Federal Reserve decision. Investors are bracing for it, with most expecting interest rates to hold steady. The market will be laserfocused on the Fed's forward guidance, especially with persistent tariff uncertainty and those rising geopolitical tensions in the mix. There's an expectation that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts throughout 2025 before possibly starting again in 2026.Retail sales for May plunged by a worsethanexpected 0.9%, raising worries about consumer demand, although the 'control group' for GDP calculation did rise a bit. Jobless claims held steady, and inflation data was softer than expected in May, with the Consumer Price Index at 2.4% annually, just slightly above the Fed's 2% target. However, tariffs could put upward pressure on prices in the coming months.From a broader economic perspective, US real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025. This means a slowdown is expected for overall economic growth this year. The labor market is healthy for now, though job growth slowed in May, and unemployment is anticipated to increase slightly. On the company front, Jabil, a manufacturing services company, surged to a record high after beating earnings estimates and citing accelerating AIdriven demand as a key growth engine. Tesla, as I mentione