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Why Rational People Like you Make Irrational Investment Decisions

Published 7 years, 11 months ago
Description

Are you where you want to be financially? If not, what's holding you back? That's what we're going to talk about in today's show.

If you're like most Australians, you're probably not where you expected to be financially. Even if you're doing well, understanding behavioural finance can help you do better.

We make thousands of decisions every day.

We usually make these decisions with almost no thought and this can lead to predictable errors in certain circumstances.

  • Confirmation Bias: The tendency to search for information that confirms your view of the world and ignore what doesn't fit. Confirmation bias also prevents us from looking objectively at an investment we've already made. Once we've bought a property we look for information to confirm that we've made a good investment while as the same time ignoring information that may indicate the investment may be a questionable one.
  • Anchoring Bias: The tendency to use anchors or reference points to make decisions and evaluations, even though sometimes these lead us astray. The first number you see, especially when it's a price that comes up in negotiation, colours any that come after it. A high anchor influences you to spend more than you normally would. Whether we like it or not, our minds keep referring back to that initial number, and perceive any subsequent offers as being a discount or a deal, even if they're objectively still too high.
  • Awareness Bias: There's a chance that even if your investments are not doing so well, you may not even recognise it. it's been shown the poorest performers in all arenas of life are the least aware of their own incompetence. Lacking the capacity to realise how badly a task is performing is known as the Dunning-Kruger effect.
  • Positivity Bias: Many people view residential real estate positively, considering it an asset class through which they can grow their wealth – and they continue to do view it in this light, even if their investments fail to prosper. Positivity bias can stand in the way of an investor taking action to rectify the situation.
  • Negativity Bias: Just as some investors can be overly positive this is the tendency to put more emphasis on negative experiences rather than positive ones. People with this bias feel that 'bad is stronger than good' and will perceive threats more than opportunities in a given situation.
  • Status Quo Bias: This describes our tendency to stick with what we know, whether or not it's the best course of action. Psychologists call this "loss aversion" and it explains why so many Australians are willing to stick their money in a plain old bank account earning minimal interest, rather than taking the "perceived risk" of a property investment.
  • Survivorship Bias: The misconception here is that you should focus on the successful if you wish to become successful, while the truth is that when failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible. The trick when looking for advice is to not only learn what to do, but also look for what not to do.
  • Bandwagon Bias: This is the psychological phenomenon whereby people do something primarily because other people are doing it. This tendency of people to align their beliefs and behaviours with those of a group is also called "herd mentality."
  • Restraint Bias: Following on from bandwagon bias, restraint bias is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to control impulsive behavior. Psychologists say the very people who think they are most restrained are also most likely to be impulsive.
  • The Ostrich Effect: When an ostrich is scared, the bird supposedly buries its head in the sand to stay ignorant of the approaching threat. While we simply don't have the neck length to literally stick our heads in the sand, people often deliberately look away from their money problems.
  • Choice-Supportive Bias
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