Episode Details

The first few weeks of 2019 have already brought many interesting predictions and forecasts for property.

In today's show, I'm going to share 5 property market predictions that will definitely happen in 2019.

I'll also have a chat with John Lindeman. We're going to find out what his research suggests about how long this property downturn is going to last. The next boom might be closer than you think.

5 Property market predictions guaranteed to happen in 2019

Around this time each year, it's customary for those of us in the property industry to peer into the future in an attempt to predict what's ahead for our housing markets in the coming year and beyond.

Making property predictions is not an exact science, but I can safely make five predictions that I am certain will be true for 2019.

• Most predictions will be wrong!

My first prediction for the year is that it will be a bad year for those in the prediction business.

I'm sure this will be correct as most of the economic and property experts get it wrong despite being armed with all the research available in today's information.

• Many things won't happen, and others will.

Many of the predictions for 2019 won't happen and a lot of things will happen this year that no forecaster thought to include in their predictions because market movements are far from an exact science.

• Some forecasts will be right

I predict that a small number of the many economic and property forecasts for 2019 will accidentally come true and those who randomly predicted them will claim to be experts, despite the fact that it was the first time they got one of their hundreds of forecasts right and that they adjusted their forecasts over the year.

• I believe that most property investors will get it wrong this year.

This one is simple –they always do!

And I'm not talking about those who fail to take action this year, those who don't even get into the market, even though that will be a big mistake this year.

• Those who get it right will do very well.

And my last prediction is that those property investors who get it right will do very well out of real estate this year and set themselves up for the years ahead.

Those who saw previous property downturns as a countercyclical opportunity have consistently done well for themselves. They recognise the slower market as a chance to invest when others are too afraid to buy and when there are more willing sellers in the market than purchasers.

A few more property predictions for 2019.

The big factors that will affect our property markets this year will be :

• The availability of finance,
• Consumer confidence and
• The result of the Federal election.

If our property markets slump further this year the RBA has the ability to lower interest rates as it has often done in the past, or APRA can loosen the screws and allow investors and home buyers borrow more freely.

I can't see any indication of a rate rise in 2019 – if anything they should fall, but the RBA doesn't like to fiddle with rates in the months leading up to an election.

Of course, any fallout from the Haynes Royal Commission into Nanking will further affect the bank's willingness to lend and possibly their need to lift rates out of cycle.

And I can't see consumer confidence changing significantly until after the election due to the unknown future status of negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax.

This means there will be further moderate price falls especially in Melbourne and Sydney and there are likely to be significant price falls for new and off the plan apartments.

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