Episode Details

We're in the midst of a health war.

It's a unique war, with every country on the planet united to beat the same enemy. It's a silent enemy, an invisible enemy. A deadly enemy.

This is a crisis that no one alive has faced before on this scale. But we're going to get through this.

On today's show, I'm going to have a chat with Ken Raiss, director of Metropole Wealth Advisory, and together we'll answer four common questions that we're being asked about the crisis by clients.

1. What's going to happen to the property market in the short term?
2. What's going to happen to the property market in the long term?
3. Are we going to go into a recession? What does that mean for you?
4. What should you do about all this?

What's ahead for the property market in the short term?

Our property markets are most likely going to shut down for a while due to social distancing and lockdown.

That shutdown could last for weeks. But the same thing happens to the market every year around Christmas time. This may be longer or shorter, but it's not unheard of.

One big difference between this shutdown and an ordinary seasonal shutdown is that there may be less confidence when we start up again.

However, not all segments of the market will be impacted equally.

The upper and lower ends of the market are likely to suffer more. But middle-class areas are not going to suffer as much and will not go down much in value.

Property markets will likely recover quickly because property is such an important part of our economy. Property and construction employ a lot of people.

The government is committed to preventing us from getting into a deeper recession than we need to. They are supporting us in the lockdown and will help the industry move on in the next phase.

The property market has both discretionary buyers and non-discretionary buyers. Discretionary buyers may choose to sit on the sidelines for a while, but non-discretionary buyers will still need to buy. Because of this, the property market tends to be resilient.

What's ahead for the property market in the long term?

We don't really know what's going to happen.

But while this issue will have an impact and will have a short-term effect on our property market, in a year, five years, or ten years from now, this will probably have no lasting effect on the market. The property market has survived bird flu, swine flu, the global financial crisis, SARS, 9/11 and more.

We have strong fundamentals – population growth is high. Immigration may drop for a while, but when this is over, people will still come to Australia.

Interest rates are low and will remain at this rate for at least another three years.

Household composition is changing, and we'll need more housing to accommodate the same number of people.

There will also be more people renting. For a long time, close to 30% of people were renting. In the future, it may be up to 40%, and investors need to provide housing for those renters.

First-time buyers started the year strong, and they'll be back because they're in it for the long term. In general, the property fundamentals and banking system are both sound.

Will we go into recession?

Yes. But you shouldn't panic.

A recession only means that prices aren't going up as much as they were historically.

This recession may be similar to the current rate of infection, where most people who are impacted are impacted mildly.

60% of home buyers live in their homes, which means there is less volatility in the property market than in the share market.

During the Global Financial Crisis, house prices fell, but only marginally. And during this crisis, the government is spending a lot of money to prevent the recession from being as deep as it could be.

Recovery will be faster for