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#260 David Woo: Stock Market Making "Huge Mistake" On Trade War - Next 6 Weeks Are Going To Be Scarier
Description
Macro trends blogger and economist David Woo @DavidWooUnbound, CEO of David Woo Unbound, a global forum devoted to the promotion of fact-based debates about markets, politics, and economics, joins Julia La Roche on episode 260 to discuss tariffs, markets, and geopolitics.
Sponsors:
Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia
Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/julia
Woo, the former head of Global Interest Rates, Foreign Exchange, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at Bank of America, is known for some of his bold and contrarian calls, including Trump winning the presidential race in 2016 (https://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/bofaml-analyst-got-ovation-from-co-workers-the-morning-after-election.html), and that the 2020 US presidential election would be much closer than expected and the results contested (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-dangerous-groupthink-stalking-wall-street-20210909-p58q48).
Links:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound
Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome and intro of David Woo
1:09 Macro picture and Trump's market influence
1:45 China tariff capitulation analysis
5:36 Trump as tactical trader
6:26 Understanding Trump's constraints
11:16 Investment strategy for trade war
17:32 How to win a trade war
23:03 Defensive positioning advice
24:30 Ukraine-Russia war failure
32:05 Geopolitical risk ranking
39:07 Do sanctions work?
43:55 Prediction markets on trade deals
48:53 Conservative movement struggles globally
49:28 Trump 2.0 performance critique
52:26 Elon Musk and DOGE disappointment
56:05 Closing thoughts