Episode Details

Confused about what's actually going on with the market, interest rates, and the economy right now? You're not alone, and this episode is our full attempt at explaining real estate in a recession in plain, no-jargon English, so you can actually explain it to your clients too. Alissa is bringing back her econ degree energy (Monster energy drink and Cliff bar included) to break down three commingled topics: recessions, interest rates, and tariffs.

We start with recessions, including the surprising fact that the US has had about 35 of them in the last 160 years, that they typically last 12 to 18 months, and that real estate has historically stayed more stable than stocks and bonds during them, because a house serves a purpose beyond investment. We get into GDP, CPI, and why "how's the market" almost never has a simple answer, then move into interest rates, the 10-year treasury bond, and why the usual relationship between the stock market and mortgage rates hasn't been behaving normally lately. We close with tariffs, why certain cities (especially new construction heavy ones) will feel it more than others, and real numbers on how much tariffs could add to the cost of building a new home.

We end with a simplified, fifth-grade-level summary of the whole conversation (courtesy of a little help from ChatGPT) that you can literally send straight to your clients, plus real talk on how this uncertainty is actually changing our own conversations with buyers and sellers right now.

Here's what we cover in this episode: -Why real estate has historically stayed more stable than stocks and bonds during a recession -The concept of a "personal recession" and why everyone's experience of the economy is different -Why life events, not the market, are what usually drive people to buy or sell a house -GDP explained simply, and why you can look up your own local area's GDP -The three things to check to gauge your local economy: population, employment, and wage growth -Why public sentiment and media narratives can actually help create the recession they're reporting on -CPI (Consumer Price Index) explained through a simple candy bar analogy -Why Dollar General, Walmart, and Delta's earnings reports are surprisingly good economic indicators -The 10-year treasury bond and why it's the real number behind interest rate behavior -Why the usual relationship between falling stocks and falling mortgage rates hasn't held up lately -Why some lenders are now recommending 90-day rate locks instead of 30-day locks -Tariffs explained, and why cities with heavy new construction will feel them more than resale-heavy markets -Real numbers on how much tariffs could add to the average cost of building a new home -The five states most likely to be affected based on their percentage of new construction -A fifth-grade-level summary of the whole economy and real estate connection, ready to send to clients -Why now more than ever, agents need a lender who's actively watching the market, not just taking them to lunch

Key quotes from this episode: "Real estate is the single best hedge against inflation and recession, more than any other asset on the planet." - Alissa, quoting Jay Scott "When the market is working with you, it's hard to fail. When it's working against you, only the resilient and wise will thrive." - Alissa "The real estate crystal ball has never been fuzzier." - Alissa "Now is not the time to choose your lender based on where they take you to lunch." - Alissa "We just have to be very informed consumers of any type of media." - Katy

Products, people, and previous episodes mentioned: -BiggerPockets podcast (Jay Scott) -The Preamble by Sharon McMahon (guest author Elise Labott) -The Blueprint, industry publication -University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index -ChatGPT (referenced for the fifth-grade summary)

Leave us a review at http://ratethispodcast.com/hustlehumbly

Get your FREE Database Template: http://hu