Episode Details

Gold again today. I just can’t stop writing about it.

Another day. Another new high. We touched $3,500 in the early hours of yesterday morning.

That’s 27 new highs in the gold price so far this year.

Yet there is still something about this bull market that doesn’t feel right or complete: it’s not confirmed by silver, which should be trading north of $50. Instead it’s mired around $32. Nor is this bull market confirmed by the miners, which, in most cases, are nowhere near all-time highs.

Nevertheless, on the basis of gold’s price relative to equities, commodities and houses, as outlined last week, gold is starting to look expensive. Is it time to have an eye on the exit?

In the short term, maybe. It’s overbought. We are going into a weak time of year for gold (May to August). But that’s why I like physical. It stops you trading!

How about this for a chart?

It now takes more work than at any time in the last 100 years to buy an ounce of gold.

This is as much a function of declining wages in real terms, and the erosion in value of fiat, as it is the price of gold, but all the same it’s pretty incredible: how we’ve all been lied to!

There are, though, many signs that gold is now fully valued.

But these are not normal times.

And a “proper” bull market will see blow-off tops in silver and the miners. We don’t have that yet.

Let me give you six more reasons (ie largely previously unmentioned reasons) not to be selling your gold.

1. You live in the UK.

(This is one I have mentioned before). Do not be fooled by the fact that the pound has been performing relatively well in the foreign exchange markets this year. It has lost 37% of its purchasing power since 2020 and has repeatedly proven to be a rotten store of value.

The interest on UK gilts is rising, meaning it is getting increasingly expensive for the government to pay for its own debt. We’re above Liz Truss levels and the trend is rising.

We’ve got high energy costs to