Episode Details

I don’t normally put out market commentary on a Sunday, especially on a Sunday evening, but the events of last week were so extraordinary I feel I have to.

We are in full-on crash mode, it seems. The price action reminds me of the Covid panic or even 2008. It almost doesn’t matter what you own. Portfolios around the world have been battered.

The declines in the final two days of last week, since so-called “Liberation Day”, when President Trump announced his tariffs, are roughly as follows:

* Bitcoin: -1%

* Gold: -3%

* S&P 500: -9%

* Nasdaq: -10%

* Brent Crude: -12.5%

* Copper: -13% (phew!)

Magnificent Seven:

* MSFT: -6%

* GOOGL: -7%

* AMZN: -13%

* META: -14%

* NVDA: -15%

* TSLA: -15%

* AAPL: -17%

We are, of course, very long gold and bitcoin here at The Flying Frisby, so I guess we’ve come out of this comparatively unscathed. What’s more, we have a good allocation to wealth preservation in the Dolce Far Niente portfolio. But our speculative positions, like everyone’s, have been hit, and I’m angry with myself for not getting more defensive sooner. I’ve been saying for some time I don’t like the price action one bit- eg here and here - and the words of that freaky preacher keep ringing in my ears.

In any case, there’s no point beating myself up. Life is easy in hindsight. Investing is even easier.

I spent considerable time on Friday and Saturday reading and watching interviews, trying to understand exactly what these tariffs are about and what the implications are, and I think I have come up with something of a roadmap.

We’ll start by explaining the plan. Then we’ll look at what comes next. And, finally, we’ll look at what to do with some of our recent speculations.

Why our opinion is irrelevant

I’m a free-trade guy, or at least I was. I’m not quite sure what I am any more. But I’m not going to waste my time - or yours - here with arguments about whether tariffs are a good thing or not. There’s no point. My time - and yours - would be as well spent howling at the moon. As far as I know, Donald Trump isn’t a reader of The Flying Frisby. He knows his own mind and he’s not going to turn to this Substack, or any of our social media feeds, for policy advice.

Don’t be like DT. Subscribe to the Flying Frisby.

Tariffs are here, and they’re here to stay. Trump is attempting a major economic redesign - the kind of reset that those who rail against economic injustice have been calling for for years. Now it’s here, and as we look at our portfolios, many of us aren’t so sure we want it.

What I want to understand, first, is the logic behind the tariffs, then their implications, so we can best navigate them.

The first thing to note I’ve already said: Trump isn’t going to backtrack. As I