Is the Chinese military really ready for war? In this episode, Chris and Matt speak with Timothy Heath, a senior international defense researcher at RAND Corporation, about his provocative new report The Chinese Military’s Doubtful Combat Readiness. Heath argues that the PLA remains deeply shaped by its political mission to preserve CCP rule—and is poorly optimized for high-end combat. They discuss how China’s military modernization masks enduring political constraints, why in his view war over Taiwan remains unlikely, and what China might do instead to challenge US interests through proxy warfare, cyber, and global coercion. Heath also explores the CCP’s legitimacy crisis, China’s evolving strategic partnerships with Russia and Iran, and why the specter of global systemic war can’t be ruled out.

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Read Timothy’s reporting

The Chinese Military's Doubtful Combat Readiness: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA830-1.html

Timothy’s other work for the RAND Corporation: https://www.rand.org/about/people/h/heath_timothy_r.html

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Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode unpacks global events through the lens of intelligence and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and analysts.

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