Episode Details

US employment report Friday looms, when markets get excited about what an unreliable survey tells us about the economic outlook. The aftermath of strikes and hurricanes adds a lot of uncertainty to this report, and there is not really a consensus expectation for employment growth—just a wide range of random expectations. The forward guidance of this report is also diminished. Whatever the trends in employment, US President-elect Trump is proposing policies that might mark a structural break in employment conditions (most obviously deportations and tariffs).