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Throughout history, technological progress has brought new wealth but has not always improved people’s lives. Economists now say it is not clear whether artificial intelligence (AI) will help or hurt society. Simon Johnson teaches economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology near Boston. He said AI has a lot of possibilities. But he added, “We are at a fork in the road.” A fork in the road is an expression used to describe a situation where the outcome is uncertain.

纵观历史，技术进步带来了新的财富，但并不总是改善人们的生活。经济学家现在表示，尚不清楚人工智能（AI）是否会帮助或损害社会。西蒙·约翰逊在波士顿附近的麻省理工学院教授经济学。他表示，人工智能有很多可能性。但他补充道，“我们正处于岔路口。”岔路口是一个表达方式，用来描述结果不确定的情况。

McKinsey is a business consulting company. It said AI could add between $14 trillion and $22 trillion of value to the world’s economy. Supporters say the technology will create wealth and improve living standards. Some go as far as saying AI will increase people’s free time and help them be more creative. But others are worried the technology will lead to lost jobs. They point to Hollywood writers and actors who are worried that they will be replaced by technology. The internet arrived with a similar promise of more productivity, wealth and jobs. Last month, the French bank Natixis noted in its research that most of the wealth has gone to a few billionaires. And many of the jobs do not require highly paid, skilled workers.

麦肯锡是一家商业咨询公司。报告称，人工智能可为世界经济增加 14 万亿至 22 万亿美元的价值。支持者表示，这项技术将创造财富并提高生活水平。有些人甚至说人工智能将增加人们的空闲时间并帮助他们更具创造力。但其他人担心这项技术会导致失业。他们指出好莱坞作家和演员担心自己会被技术取代。互联网的到来也带来了类似的承诺：提高生产力、财富和就业机会。上个月，法国外贸银行在其研究中指出，大部分财富都流向了少数亿万富翁。而且许多工作并不需要高薪、技术熟练的工人。

The bank warned in its report, “We should be cautious when estimating the effects of artificial intelligence on labor productivity.” In July, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released its opinion research of 5,300 workers about AI. Some workers hope the technology will increase pay and job satisfaction. But they are also concerned that the technology could push people to work too hard.

该银行在报告中警告称，“在评估人工智能对劳动生产率的影响时，我们应该保持谨慎。” 7月，经济合作与发展组织发布了针对5300名工人对人工智能的意见研究。一些工人希望这项技术能够提高工资和工作满意度。但他们也担心这项技术可能会促使人们工作过度。

Such concerns are not unfounded. History has shown the economic impact of technological progress is generally uncertain, unequal and even harmful. Johnson recently published a book, Power and Progress, with Daron Acemoglu, another economist from MIT. They studied technological progress over the last 1,000 years including clothing production, train travel, and even food shopping. The two economists looked at an invention called the spinning jenny that made it easier to turn cotton and wool into yarn. They said the device helped clothing production and created wealth for many people in the l