Episode Details

Here are Tim and Julie Harris's Top Ten 2024 Real Estate Market Predictions (Boom or BUST?)

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1. Prices will continue to rise, on average 5 to 6% nationwide.

-Some as much as 10%, some will be more stagnant. 

-What happens locally will depend on your inventory and the impact of new construction.

-Rents will increase.

-Defaults and distressed real estate isn't going to be an issue. 

2.  Mortgage Interest Rates will continue to trend downward.

-Likely to stabilize in the low to mid 6% range.

-Builders will still offer better interest rates through their in-house financing.

-Assumable mortgages may become more prevalent.  We are already seeing this happen.

-5 and 7-year Adjustable rates will become more popular.

3.  Inventory will rise as interest rates fall.  

-Most sellers are also buyers, so when there are more choices to move up or down to, they'll be more willing to list.

4. The number of Sales will rise.

-This should climb back to the 5 million sale range, but that's still short of a 'normal' or balanced market. Increase in resale home sales by as much as 1,000,000 units. 

-Sellers will continue to be in control.

5.  Agent Migration from small and medium-sized brokerages to larger brands.

-Result of commission lawsuit

-Result of shrinking profits

-Brokerages like EXP are rising due to agent-centric opportunities beyond just commissions

6.  Effect of the Commission Lawsuits: Too soon to tell, however...

-Watch for local MLSs to 'decouple' from NAR.  Membership to NAR will drop but that doesn't mean agents are quitting real estate.

-Flexibility of buyer-side fees may become more normal.

-Power of state and local boards will increase if NAR's influence decreases

7.  New AI empowered Team (and Brokerage) models will thrive. 

- AI empowered agents will rule the roost.

-Expect AGI (beyond AI) to be the biggest reality bender since the Industrial Revolution or even the Tech Revolution. 

-Soon AI will do all of your social media and other passive lead generation for you. 

-AI will allow individual agents to operate as if they had a big (and expensive) team.

-AI will enable agents to not just lead generate but also do initial prequalification and even presales. 

8.  New Construction will continue to be hot.

-Impact on the resale market

-Don't expect builders to flood the market; they control their own inventory 

-Smaller floorplans 

-New construction prices already have adjusted down by 5%

9. New Mortgage Programs will flourish. (and new Fin-Tech)

- Expect home ownership and mortgage access to become a very hot political topic. The average age of a first time buyer is now close to 40!

- 40 year mortgages. Automatic rate reductions when the rates fall etc. 

- Homes will be securitized by the owner. Imagine being able to sell off the value of 10% of your home to an investor. Investor gets paid 10% of the homes value when the home sells. Their 10% investment could be used towards downpayment etc.

- Fannie and Freddie will be purchasing MBS (mortgage backed securiti