Episode Details

(Audio Discussion generated by NotebookLM)

The source for NotebookLM1. The below content written and analyzed all by my human self2. RCA, NIFTY FIFTY, AOL and FANGs. July 6, 2020 | François Sicart

Let’s go on a thought experiment journey together.

Who is tired of hearing about the Jevons paradox? 🙋‍♂️

Stick with it one more time because I have not seen it presented this way anywhere else. Probably because no one is crazy enough or they didn't live through the dot-com boom bust. Well I am and I have.

What is Jevons paradox? (Wiki)

In a nutshell, it states that an increase in efficiency in using a resource leads to increased use of that resource, rather than to a reduction.

Items or services that go from inaccessible to ubiquity, where the efficiency, cost and or access improves exponentially.

Few examples:

* Commercial airlines

* Cell phones

* Personal Computers

* Cars powered by Petrol

* Then EV Cars

* The Internet

* Televisions

* The electricity grid

All this talk about Jevons paradox in context that DeepSeek is somehow great for legacy tech co’s like Nvidia got me thinking.

Ok, what if January 20, 2025 DeepSeek R1 day was the ignition of giving anyone with internet connection, or under funded businesses who can’t afford data centers and GPUs, to have access to advanced AI.

Similar ignitions have happened before, so how did those companies and stocks perform in the past while going through a period of Jevons Paradox?

Let’s time travel to the launch of the iPhone 1 and 3G/4G, offering mobile computing to the world.

Who remembers watching this keynote on Jan 9, 2007?

“It’s an iPod, it’s a phone, and an internet communicator” RIP Steve Jobs

Let’s take a look at T-Mobile stock through three mobile industry milestones. I chose TMUS randomly amongst its peers.

Shaded areas

* iPhone brings computing to your pocket

* Then 3G and 4G bring higher data speeds

* 5G enables super fast seamless data anywhere for even lower prices

No one today has a dumb phone anymore. We simply have become phone dumb. We can’t live without them. It is an appendage to our body.

2006

Today

If the DeepSeek moment truly was akin to the Internet expansion or the mobile smartphone expansion, we may see NVDA and its peers repeat history, where the pioneers are all flushed out.

After the iPhone launch, T-Mobile went from $50 to $7. Counter intuitive huh? Then rallied and crashed to $7 again, before it marched to 5G and beyond.

Peak to trough, TMUS fell 86%, then rose more than 3,333%.

Linear Chart

What if history rhymes?

I neatly fit the NVDA lifetime chart into the same period of TMUS fall after the iPhone launch for your imagination’s pleasure.

If the performance rings true, NVDA would go to $17. Then march to $566.

Internet Expansion

How about the dot-com boom and bust? That surely was a period of massive change and the Jevons Paradox is applicable. You could easily argue that CSCO was the NVDA of that era, selling shovels to tech co’s becoming dot com companies.

Nvidia

Dot-com low = $0.06 cents!

Huh? How you ask? Since its initial public offering (IPO) in January 1999, Nvidia has undergone six forward splits:

June 2000: 2-for-1 stock split.

September 2001: 2-for-1.

April 2006: 2-for-1.

September 2007: 3-for-2.

July 2021: 4-for-1.

June 2024: 10-for-1.

And NVIDIA has already grown faster than any company. Also owns the two largest 1 day draw downs in stock market history the past few m