Episode Details

With some forecasters warning of somewhere between a depression and Armageddon, here are my thoughts on the UK housing market.

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The UK housing market will shrink - but not necessarily crash - next year, industry experts agree, as the government fights recession and higher mortgage rates.

House prices have been dropping month-on-month with average prices down 2.3% in November from October – the most since the start of the financial crash in 2008 – according to Halifax.

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Price growth will decline in 2023 as soaring inflation hits the economy and forces interest rates up.

As the downturn intensifies, housing indicators are showing red with rates expected to go even higher and the UK goes into a long recession.

The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates into 2023 from 3.5% now to 4.75%, but there are signs that the rate of inflation is slowing.

Higher interest rates will hit buy-to-let landlords and investors, as deals fail to stack up.

Move from cities to the country is slowing, as more people move back to the office.

Property experts forecast property price declines of 5% - 12% next year, although some warn of a crash by 15% to 20%. 

Mortgage rates have since fallen back since the disastrous mini-budget in September to an average five-year fix at 5.6% according to Moneyfacts – still far higher than a year ago. 

UK mortgage lenders expect to lend 23% less to homebuyers in 2023 following a two-year boom.

UK Finance forecast gross mortgage lending for house purchases to decline to £131bn in 2023 from £171bn in 2022 and a peak of £189bn in 2021.

Leading UK lenders have met with government officials to discuss measures to ease the burden on around 90,000 people in mortgage arrears, the FT reports.

Property sales are set to drop to 1.01m next year from 1.27m in 2022.

Savills warns of a severe drop in transactions, to 870,000, and a 10% fall in house prices in 2023.

Estate agents Jones Lang LaSalle forecasts a 6% drop in house prices next year.

Both firms expect a 1% price growth in 2024, as interest rates fall back and inflation cools.

The Nationwide expects a “modest decline” or “soft landing” in house prices next year, but lenders seldom talk of a property crash. The lender said 85% of mortgage balances are currently on fixed interest rates.

The Bank of England said 4m households face higher mortgage payments next year.

Typical payments could rise by £250 to £1,000 a month causing severe financial difficulties for 220,000 households.

Capital Economics’ central forecast is for house prices to fall by 12% by the end of 2023, but Andrew Wishart, senior economist at the consultancy, said in a worst-case scenario prices could plummet by up to 20%. “The initial drop in house prices has been sharper than in the financial crisis or the early 90s, “For affordability to return to a sustainable level by the end of 2023, when we think mortgage rates will still be around 5%, the average house price would have to drop by 20%. 

On the other hand, were market and mortgage interest rates to drop faster than we expect, that would limit the fall in prices.”

Rent prices have surged to record levels due to a shortage of properties to rent and growing demand, as well as a slowing buy-to-let market and many first-time buyers are opting to rent in the hope of lower mortgage rates in 2023/24. Some 85,000 landlords have quit the buy-to-let market in the last 5 years. 

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