Episode Details

Before you look at these predictions, you should see how accurate my 7 predictions for 2019 were.

Also, if you want to watch me talk about this, see it on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwI739M9vKU

In 2020...
1. Bitcoin will end 2020 above $10,000.

Unlike my previous two bitcoin predictions which were perfect (the 80% decline followed by the 100% rise), I'm unsure about 2020. As you can see from my 2030 predictions, I'm bullish long-term for bitcoin, but 2020 is a bit fuzzy. There's a 30% chance that it will soar pass $20,000.

On the other hand, after doubling in 2019, it could also be due for a pullback in 2020. There's a 40% chance that it end between $6,000 and $10,000. 

One thing is almost certain: 2020 will once again see some volatility from bitcoin, as usual. But I expect a healthy gain overall.

2. Mayor Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination.

At the end of 2019, according to Real Clear Politics, Biden has a solid lead nationally and in Nevada and South Carolina. He also leads in the betting odds. 

Here's why I think the dark horse Buttigieg will win the nomination.

First, he has a good chance of winning Iowa and New Hampshire. Even if he doesn't, he may come in second place. 

Regardless, he'll get a ton of attention from those finishes. That includes attention from Nevada and South Carolina. Once voters from those two states start taking Mayor Pete seriously, he'll move up in the polls of those two states (and others). 

Mayor Bloomberg and Biden are both focusing on the marathon; they're willing to give up some wins at the start and they're banking that they can catch up later.

On the other hand, momentum is important. 

The other thing that is important is what I call the Mirror Image Theory. I discuss that idea more in the last 30 minutes of my WanderLearn podcast with Sym Blanchard.

Simply put, incoming US Presidents are often mirror images (opposites) of the outgoing President. Just look at the 7 elected presidents. We swing back and forth. 

So what's the most opposite of Trump?

It ain't old-timers like Biden, Warren, and Sanders.

It's Buttigieg.

3. Trump will lose the 2020 Election. 

Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will inspire the lazy voters who sat on their ass in 2016 thinking that Hillary was a shoo-in. 

The only opponents Trump has a good chance of beating are the "socialist" ones (Sanders and Warren). 

4. The US GDP will slide into negative territory (a recession) in the second half of 2020.

The US economy has had a nice long run. It will take a break.

5. The S&P 500 will have a flat year. 

The S&P is around 3,250 now and it will end 2020 around the same place, plus or minus 3%.

By 2030...
1. One bitcoin will be worth more than $100,000.

I'm not positive about this. Here's how I break down the odds:

• 60% chance that Bitcoin will be worth over $100,000. 


• 30% chance that Bitcoin will be worth between $30,000 to $100,000 (at least 10% annualized return)


• 5% chance that Bitcoin will be worth between $8,000 and $30,000.


• 5% chance that it will be worth less than today.

Why? 

Because Bitcoin today is like the internet in the 1990s: although many people have heard of it, only early adopters and other geeks have it. Once the whole planet learns about it, you'll have a spike in demand, but t