Episode Details

IN POLITICAL NEWS

1) Didn't I say it? I felt over the weekend that the wheels had come off the Cackles clown car and that complete momentum had shifted to President Trump AND Republicans. In WI, R internals show Trump up 3 now, and the Ds are freaking out about Tammy Baldwin losing the senate race. I sense overall panic setting in---for example, the latest (and likely accurate) poll has Trump up 13 in FL. Mark Halperin's latest video blog says Republicans now believe they have the "sunbelt" and PA, so that's the election right there. In Maricopa Co., AZ, a dominant lead for Rs is getting ridiculous. Overnight, both parties saw a blizzard of registrations. Ds registered 2,000!! Wow. Except Rs registered 4,000!!!! Total R lead in Maricopa Co. alone is 175,000 or R+7. How about PA, where the early ballot requests are now even in a state where Ds usually have a 40 point advantage?? And if you believe in magic, er, polls, here the the latest Insider Advantage that has Trump up 2 in PA (meaning at least a 3 and possibly a 4 point win). Here is the latest Quinnipiac poll with Trump up 3 in MI and 2 in WI (but strangely down in PA---not possible). And a new Cook Political report has Trump leading big (7 points) among mid- and low-propensity voters. Actually, I find that low. RealClearPolitics how has Trump up in the average of polls in MI.

2) This is very interesting and could be interpreted a couple of ways. An ad-watch agency says Cackles has canceled ads in ME, MN, NH and NV. Now, pro-Cackles people could say they think those states are safe. I can't imagine that, especially NV and NH. Another way to look at it as Custer's Last Stand in PA, WI, and MI---that the others won't matter if Cackles doesn't salvage a win in PA or MI. Conrad Black says the notion that the Cackles campaign iis beginning to fray. I believe it. Yesterday (supposedly) Trump internals had him up in every single battleground state. Except now I want VA, ME, NM, and MN to be the new "battlegrounds."

3) My colleague on DecisionUSA2024 election night coverage, "Captain" Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) has Trump winning NV by over 2 points and nearly 40,000 votes. This tracks with Richard Baris's NV polling showing Trump leading in CLARKE Co. by 2. Activote has Trump nationally by 2.

4) Wow, the New York Slimes has Rs taking the senate.

5) A Katrina-like disaster is unfolding as Rutabaga and Cackles do nothing and FEMA is useless while a new hurricane hits Florida. And th