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Pre-Trading Thoughts

Published 1 year, 4 months ago
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The CBE's MPC is scheduled to meet on Thursday, 21 November. 

The IMF mission that is in Cairo is set to complete the fourth review of Egypt’s USD8 billion loan program this week.

Egypt’s unemployment rate rose to 6.7% of the total workforce in the third quarter of 2024, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

The Madbouly government on Thursday inked two MoUs with local and international energy players (Taqa Arabia and Voltalia consortium and UAE Alcazar) that could see them develop projects producing some 5.2 GW of renewable energy under a build-own-operate (BOO) system.

Suez Canal revenues have reportedly dropped by 61% YoY in 9M24.

The Cabinet approved amendments to the Unified Budget Act, setting an annual debt ceiling for the government and all 59 of its economic bodies. 

The Cabinet approved a new mechanism to ensure all entities responsible for customs clearance work seven days a week, including bank branches at ports. 

Egypt is now a member of the Baku Initiative for Climate Finance, Investment, and Trade unveiled at COP29. 

The National Industrial Strategy aims to boost the industrial sector's contribution to the country’s GDP from to 20% by 2030 from 14% currently.

The net foreign assets of the CBE increased by about USD168.5 million in October, reaching c.USD10.625 billion.

Dana Gas is waiting for the Egyptian government to pay USD24 million of its dues.

The cost of the export burden rebate program implemented during March 2024 through June 2025 is estimated at EGP23 billion, divided among the various programs.

We raised our FV of LCSW from EGP30.08/share to EGP37.00/share and maintain our Overweight recommendation for the stock given its sturdy financial and operational performance in 9M24 outperforming our estimates for the year. Our updated valuation model assumes higher revenue estimates growing at a CAGR of 14% between 2024-2029 and healthy gross margin levels to average 25% throughout the forecast period. LCSW is currently trading at FY25e PE of 3.2x and EV/EBITDA of 2.0x. 

 SWDY reported 3Q24 consolidated results. Attributable earnings surged to EGP4.8 billion (+92%, +8% QoQ). 9M24 attributable earnings soared to EGP13.3 billion (+64% YoY). SWDY is currently trading at FY25e P/E of 10.4x and EV/EBITDA of 5.3x.

MCQE reported enhanced financial performance in 3Q24. Attributable bottom line came in at EGP21.7 million in 3Q24 bouncing back from a recorded loss of EGP1.1 million in the previous quarter and a loss of EGP29.6 million in 3Q24. 9M24 attributable earnings surged 270% YoY to EGP52.2 million. MCQE is trading at FY25 P/E of 10.8x and EV/EBITDA of 5.8x.

SWDY’s Board approved guaranteeing and warranting Elsewedy Electric Power Systems Projects, Saudi Arabia branch, the facility contract to be concluded between the latter (Borrower) and First Abu Dhabi Bank, Mashreq Bank, and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank with a principal amount of up to USD329.3 million for the procurement and construction works of Rabigh Power Plant Project in Saudi Arabia. 

FWRY (FV: EGP13.00, OW) reported record 3Q24 results. Net profit came in at EGP478 million (+135% YoY, +48.5% QoQ). In 9M24, net profit recorded EGP1.11 billion (+127% YoY). FWRY is currently trading at 2025f P/E of 15.7x and EV/EBITDA of 9.2x.

NTRA has issued licenses for seven firms to establish and operate call centers using voice over internet protocol and other tools. The companies include Vodafone Egypt, RACC, ETEL’s Xceed, and others.

GBCO released 3Q24 results. Net profit recorded EGP746 million in 3Q24 (+12.6% YoY, +76.8% QoQ). This brought 9M24 net profit to EGP1,794 million (+41.2% YoY). GBCO is currently trading at 2025f P/E of 3.9x and EV/EBITDA of 3.8x.

State-owned El Nasr Automotive has officially restarte

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