Episode Details

Summary

When faced with unexpected negative outcomes, people tend to become more paranoid and attracted to conspiracy theories. This negatively impacts their ability to make sound, rational decisions. This week we look at five ways leaders can help overcome our tendency towards paranoia when faced with uncertainty.

Transcript

Hello and welcome to episode 82 of the Leadership Today podcast where each week we tackle one of today's biggest leadership challenges. This week we look at five ways leaders can help overcome our tendency towards paranoia when faced with uncertainty.

A firm I worked for was going through an acquisition. As part of the company being acquired, that meant moving to some beautiful new offices on a high floor overlooking gardens. We had only just moved in when there was the first of many morning teas to celebrate birthdays in the office. As we made our way into the open kitchen area I could not believe the amount of food. There wasn't just the traditional birthday cake, but also sushi, sandwiches, spring rolls and pastries filling the large table. Just before the speech began, I heard a low voice next to me say "Hey - you're one of the new guys, yeah? So here's the deal - make sure you take as much food as you can - maybe for lunch or to take home. Otherwise if there's food left over the management will cut back on how much they order next time". Sure enough, once we finished singing happy birthday, people were making their way back to their desks with loaded plates and containers full of food - more than enough to cover their lunch if not another meal on top of that. To me it looked like a somewhat overly generous way to celebrate staff and bring people together. But for the paranoid whisperer, the birthday celebrations had become just another way that the leaders were scheming to take something away from the workers. The acquisition provided fertile ground for all sorts of conspiracy theories and paranoia.

How prevalent is paranoia? One study showed 20% of people believe that someone was against them at some time during the last year. 8% of the population believe others are actively out to harm them.

In a work context, I've lost count of how many times people have said "the management" or some other elusive group were out to get them. There have been accusations of sabotage, stealing clients, or other teams intentionally making things hard out of spite. All of this resulted in cultures driven by blame, fear and even revenge.

Research demonstrates that paranoia is a predictable response to uncertainty and unexpected change. As human beings we try to make sense of negative and unexpected events, and often that involves finding someone to blame. Blaming others helps us to explain and make sense of events, even if the conspiracy theory we put together seems a little strange to others.

In one study researchers measured people's levels of paranoia and then had them play a card game where the chances of winning were manipulated during the game. Those with greater levels of paranoia tended not to learn from the outcomes in the game, expecting even higher levels of volatility than was present. High levels of paranoia decreased effectiveness. They made decisions and choices that weren't based on the experience of playing the game, but rather based on their perceptions of the person leading the game. As the experimenters increased the level of uncertainty, even the initially low paranoia participants started acting like those with high paranoia. Their learning also decreased and they became far less effective. When uncertainty was high decisions were based far more on their expectations than on real-time experience.

Now I can guess what you're thinking - when bad things are happening to you, surely it's natural to feel parano