Episode Details

In this episode, we explore the concept of "pre-mortem" or prospective hindsight, a technique that helps teams identify potential reasons for failure before a project begins. Research shows that this approach increases the ability to foresee outcomes by 30%. By imagining a scenario where a project has already failed, team members can share their insights and concerns without the fear of being seen as negative, helping to prevent issues before they occur. This method is highly effective in decision-making and risk management, particularly in high-stakes environments like diving or complex team projects.

Original blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/how-to-help-correct-the-biases-which-lead-to-poor-decision-making

Links: Sunk cost fallacy: http://youarenotsosmart.com/2011/03/25/the-sunk-cost-fallacy/

Authority gradient: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/authority-gradient-why-people-don-t-or-can-t-speak-up

Video from Daniel Kahneman about the “pre-mortem”: https://vimeo.com/67596631

Hindsight bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindsight_bias

Outcome bias: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outcome_bias

Tags: English, Gareth Lock