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Rankings vs. projections & what factors fantasy analysis doesn't get right
Description
As any fantasy manager or stock trader knows, predicting the future is hard. That's why we rely on analysis from experts to distill complicated systems down to their most easy to understand metrics so we can get a leg up on the competition. But even then, oftentimes, fantasy analysis isn't perfect.
On today's episode, Matt Harmon is joined by Ben Gretch to discuss two of fantasy football's most consumed prediction metrics: rankings and projections. How do fantasy analysts such as ourselves come up with them? What situations should you read one versus the other? And in what situations are they completely useless?
Ben also helps explain four ways in which fantasy analysis and human instinct just consistently get things wrong, and how to watch out for those common pitfalls.
Towards the end of the show the guys discuss two younger players out west whose disappointing 2023 campaigns are causing them to be undervalued this year in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Javonte Williams, before sharing one rookie wideout that is certainly worth a dart-throw in a high-volume offensive situation.
(4:40) - How fantasy projections are made & how rankings differ
(25:30) - What four things fantasy analysis gets wrong
(1:01:15) - Undervalued situations: SEA's Jaxon Smith-Njigba
(1:08:00) - Undervalued situations: DEN's Javonte Williams
(1:12:20) - Rookies worth a dart throw: KC's Xavier Worthy
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