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Election Betting: Why Gamblers Keep Beating Pollsters with Maxim Lott
In this episode, we sit down with Maxim Lott to discuss the surprising recent political developments, including why Biden dropped out of the race, the influence of betting odds versus traditional polling, and the odds for Kamala Harris in the upcoming election. We also explore the evolution of prediction markets and their growing importance in political forecasting, as well as the potential impact of the new right on future elections. Tune in for a detailed and engaging conversation on the dynamics of election betting, political strategy, and the changing landscape of the Republican party.
Maxim Lott: [00:00:00] Yeah. I'm excited for this too. I really appreciate your natalism work that you guys do. So
Simone Collins: we really appreciate the work you do, man. You're on at a perfect time. Like we're probably going to run your interviews with us.
Like usually. Months for us to run these and now we're like, oh my God, we got to run it
Malcolm Collins: with all this election stuff that's going on. This is wild. Yeah. You had, you had disagreed with the betting odds recently.
Maxim Lott: Yes. Yes. I had a post about why Biden won't drop out and all this good reasoning, but the betting odds said he would and he did.
So the lesson is to listen to the betting odds, not any one analyst.
Malcolm Collins: Oh, I'd love to hear why you thought he wouldn't drop out.
Maxim Lott: Yeah, you know, I thought it wasn't in his interest. If he wanted to, he could have gone to the convention and got the nomination. Yes, thank
Simone Collins: you. That's, that's what I kept telling everyone.
I was like, he's not, like, all the way up through Saturday, it was like, he's not going to drop out. No one can technically force him to drop out. And he's no reason to want to, why would he do it? No one can stop him. He's not going to drop out. So I'm with you on that. And
Malcolm Collins: you also [00:01:00] have the problem that Jill hates Kamala.
And this is like publicly,
Simone Collins: and
Malcolm Collins: if she's making the decisions for Biden, she definitely wouldn't want him to drop out if she was a presumptive nominee.
Maxim Lott: Yeah, and it seemed like there was no way for them to truly force him out either, but I think I underestimated how much kind of soft power there is in the Democratic Party with Obama and Pelosi really running the show.
Simone Collins: Like, I don't know, man, they tried everything. I feel like they literally tried everything. Like people drove out to his house, you know, George Clooney, like just, they threw everything at him. And I think, and maybe in the end, because donations started drying up. That was it. You know, just like, yeah, I think it was probably
Malcolm Collins: donors that got him out.
Simone Collins: So
Maxim Lott: you'd think if you can make it to the convention, the donors would, who else are they going to donate to? They don't like Trump. So, but clearly he felt the pressure and he had COVID and a lot of things conspired and he dropped out. So [00:02:00]
Simone Collins: the
Maxim Lott: bettors were not surprised. They had, This at like 70% a couple days before he dropped out.
Simone Collins: Wow. So they,
Maxim Lott: they were right. I, I lost money betting on the other side, but . Wow. Yeah. You
Malcolm Collins: know, he, he got covid we'll see if there was any you know, there was a lot of people interested in something like that happening to him. I was, I was joking. There was a thing about Trump's assassination and
Published on 1 year, 4 months ago