Episode Details

I am bringing my Edinburgh Fringe “lecture with funny bits” about the history of mining to London on October 9th and 10th to the Museum of Comedy. Please come if you fancy a bit of “learning and laughter”. The Edinburgh link is here. And the London link is here.

Let’s start with an overview of gold demand as it currently stands.

Never mind central banks, investment banks, or private investors—almost 50% of annual gold demand comes from the jewellery industry. It is, by some margin, the single largely buyer of gold. Another 23% is investment demand, and 21%—last year at least—came from central banks. Just 6% of demand is industrial (excluding jewellery, of course).

Jewellery, investment, and central bank demand have all been increasing in recent years. However, a change in macroeconomic circumstances could easily mean, for example, that central banks become net sellers. It's not like it hasn't happened before. But, while de-dollarisation remains a growing theme, I do not see that as likely for several years at least. Similarly, investment demand could easily shrink. Jewellery demand is more constant, and it increases when people feel rich and decreases when they don’t.

Gold’s main use has always been and will always be to store and display wealth—in other words, investment and jewellery. Technological demand is rather at the margin, but might we see demand growth there? Let’s investigate.

Interestingly, one huge potential increase in demand will come, ironically perhaps since that is where gold came from, at the final frontier in outer space.

At the Final Frontier - Also On Your Phone

Both silver and copper are better conductors of electricity than gold, but gold is more resistant to corrosion and oxidation. Therefore, it finds considerable use in electronics as a coating, especially where long-term stability is important. It is used to cover connectors, switches, and relay contacts; in printed circuit boards, microprocessors, and memory chips. This resistance means it finds considerable use in both aerospace and outer space, where it is used to coat satellite components and spacecraft.

It can reflect infrared radiation and protect craft from overheating—especially important in the wild temperature fluctuations of outer space. It is also used in the heat shields which protect sensitive equipment from high temperatures during re-entry into Earth's atmosphere.

The umbilical cord that binds an astronaut to their spacecraft is plated with gold. The visors of astronaut helmets are plated with gold to protect their eyes from harmful ultraviolet radiation. The MOXIE (Mars Oxygen In-Situ Resource Utilization Experiment) instrument, which forms part of NASA’s Mars exploration programme, is plated with gold. Its purpose is to create oxygen from carbon dioxide, effectively replicating the role of plants on Earth, so that a human mission to Mars can one day take place.

Ultimately, gold’s permanence is the fundamental reason for its use. You need durable materials. When you send a spacecraft to outer space, you can’t repair it.

This usage is not yet significant enough to radically alter gold demand, but that could change, and quite dramatically so, as space exploration increases.

At the 2022